* Kiwi retail sales stronger than expected
* Indian central bank reiterates hawkishness
* Euro area GDP likely contracted in Q2
* Greece to sell EUR3.1bn of 91-day bills
What to watch for today
EUR: A weak quarter. The first read on Q2 GDP data for France, Germany and the Euro area as a whole should confirm that activity ground to halt in that period. We expect French GDP to have contracted by 0.1% in Q2 after a flat Q1, which would mark the first contraction since Q1 2009. Activity will also likely have contracted for the Euro area as a whole, with our forecast calling for a 0.2% contraction after a flat Q1 and a 0.3% contraction in December. Germany should continue to expand, but at a slow 0.2% rate. Euro area industrial production for June will also be released, and the German ZEW survey will provide updated analyst views on the outlook there. Weak growth in Europe should support expectations for further policy easing from the ECB, keeping the EUR heavy even as broader risk appetite improves.
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