UK retail sales are out today 930 AM UK time
We expect – 0.9% mom after the strong April number.
see our econ group’s preview below
UK Retail sales (May) – 09:30 BST
April’s retail sales data appeared very strong, with sales excluding automotive fuel rising by 1.2% MoM. However, much of the strength appears to have been driven by the very favourable confluence of the royal wedding and the unseasonably warm weather over the month, which boosted sales in areas such as food and clothing. Indeed, the 2.2% m-o-m increase in food sales was almost a record (the highest ever was 2.8% in May 1990), and previous experience suggests that food sales fall by an average of 1.8% in months following similarly strong increases.
Recent data from the British Retail Consortium showed a marked easing in sales during May, although we note that the CBI retail survey held up much better. Overall, though, we expect corrections in food and clothing sales to cause retail sales (excluding automotive fuel) to fall by 0.9% in May, with the annual rate easing from 2.7% to 1.4%.
Retail sales ex. auto fuel
Month (Last / Median/ Forecast) 1.2% / – / -0.9%
Year (Last / Median/ Forecast) 2.7% / – / 1.4%
Retail sales inc. auto fuel
Month (Last / Median/ Forecast) 1.1% / -0.6% / –
Year (Last / Median/ Forecast) 2.8% / -1.5% / –
HSBC Global Research