ECB to signal a hike in July (13:45CET)
By using the expression ‘strongly vigilant’ the ECB is likely to indicate that a 25bp increase will come in July (HSBC Economics & Bloomberg consensus). During the press conference (14:30CET) the focus will also be on potential questions related to the rollover of Greek debt as it is considered to be a critical part for any additional…
BoE to remain on hold (13:00CET), Moody’s warning on UK rating
Despite the fact that the April inflation figures came in above expectations at 4.5%, MPC members look set to maintain that the CPI will move back towards target on a two-year horizon, therefore warranting unchanged rates at 0.50% (HSBC & Bloomberg consensus). Q1 GDP figures have revealed…
Greece re-profiling vs roll-overs, German position shifts
The debate has always been centred on the ‘voluntary’ nature of any restructuring and the ratings agencies have stated already made their position clear; coercive action is default (see recent Fitch report, for example). So given it will be damned if they do, damned if they don’t, Germany appears to have…
HSBC Global Research