Tag Archives: USD/TRY
Weekly Forex Report
Deflationary forces in the Eurozone to subside? Although a near consensus view, we are of the belief that the US Dollar will continue to gain favour in 2014.
The NOK continues to be under pressure
EUR/USD: A choppy intraday session, squeezed between the 1.3581support and the 1.3625/45 resistance end almostunchanged. The latest more was however an impulsive dropfrom 1.3650 to
Still looking for a $ rise. Sell the AUD bounce.
EUR/USD: The setup for a move lower is still in place with the falseupside break and bearish divergences in MACD andmomentum indicators (also 9 out of the past 15 Jan’sbecame losers).
Returning $ demand? AUD testing key levels, again.
EUR/USD: Even though we take into account a less liquid market thannormal, Friday’s price action, with the up-thrust peak abovethe prior peaks and 61.8% Fibo resistance,
Higher US 10year yield & Stronger stock markets. USD/TRY skyrocketing.
EUR/USD: The ascending 55day exponentially weighted movingaverage band, starting at 1.3640 represents short-termdynamic support. Buyers seem to keep the upper hand inthe holiday season thinned market.
S&P500 extending gains towards 1,835. USD/TRY tests >2.10
EUR/USD: A net move lower was recorded last week and this points lower,but the market became balanced ahead of the weekend andthe 1.3622-1.37 stalemate has to end for a fresh directional cue.
What vol implied ranges tell us about 2014
On EUR/USD, spot has traded a 1.29 handle in each of the last 10years. 2014 is not the moment to break the pattern, given the skew ofbig picture macro risks, from slowly pricing US rate hikes in the shortendof the USD yield curve,
Dollar’s hot, euros not. Sell commodity currencies.
EUR/USD: So with the final pop up, spiking above the 55d ma band theeight and a half day long correction finally came to an end.
Seeking a stronger dollar. €/Scandies consolidating.
EUR/USD: A first attempt to end the current upward correction wasseen yesterday but was apparently not drawing enoughselling to break down from the bear flag.
The euro is clawing back earlier losses, especially against the scandies
EUR/USD: The market failed to contain the pair inside a contractingcontinuation pattern, but it is likely still a bearishcontinuation formation more like a “Flag”
Still a € & $ waiting game. €/SEK & €/NOK upside risk
EUR/USD: Also yesterday the market continued to consolidate,digesting the impulsive decline last week. With a minimumcorrection target, 1.3535,
Continued $ recovery + weakening SEK = buy $/SEK
EUR/USD: Having passed FOMC and the 1.3733 mid body point thedoor has been opened to lower levels. We will next focus atthe Oct 3 peak, 1.3647,