Tag Archives: TRY

FX Quant Fund Positioning Data

The following are the latest weekly positions updates on Societe Generale’s FX Quant Fund which runs systematic currency strategies by SocGen’s quant analysts.

The Global Macro Pulse

G10 currencies traded in tight ranges in Asia. AUDUSD is a touch lower at0.9424, EURUSD rose to 1.3596, having traded briefly over 1.36, and

USD/JPY correction target met, NOK/SEK @ support

EURUSD: Given that we don’t now the outcome of today’s ECBmeeting we have to act on what Mr. Market is telling us.

Investors Continue Selling Emerging Markets Even After Rate Hikes

Markets are waging war against central bankers.

Rate Hikes Needed To Relieve Pressure For Emerging Markets Currencies

Turkey’s central bank appears set to use its emergency meeting to hike rates and the Reserve Bank of India surprised the market with an increase,

FX Viewpoint: Central Bank of Turkey remains on hold with hints of more tightening

As universally expected, the Central Bank of Turkey continued to refrain from hiking at today’s monetary meeting, despite surging inflation expectations.

* We expect modest UK retail sales growth * Turkey likely to narrow its interest rate bands * Consensus expectation is for a rebound in the Philly Fed * We recommend short EURMXN and long EURTRY positions

TRY: CBRT shows its hand

Turkish central bank has taken new steps to improve its communication with the markets. On Friday, the CBRT said that it would indicate in advance the amount of funding it intends to provide via the one-week repo auction.

Turkey watchers

Turkey’s current account deficit came out in line with expectations at about USD4.0bn in August. The deficit was at 5.3bn in July. Compared to August last year, the deficit is up 30% but the important point is that there is a clear slowdown in the pace.

TRY: Time to buy

The lira depreciation now appears excessive The combination of central bank policy and the reduction in external imbalances should lead to a stronger currency USD-TRY may move back to 1.70

TRY watchers

The Turkish central will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT. The consensus is for no change in rates. After the strong GDP, the better-than-expected IP and the higher-than-expected inflation, there are good reasons for the CBRT to stay put, particularly after the 50bp cut in August.

TURKEY WATCHERS. Interim MPC: Shifting priority

CBRT did not surprise in surprising markets with sweeping changes to monetary and FX policies in today’s interim meeting. The policy priority shifts to supporting domestic growth in light of deteriorating global environment.