Tag Archives: SEK
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Have to say surprised by the follow through to the downside yesterday – we never looked back from the rate change announcement taking out the support at 1.2450/1.2410 – and very little retracement back above that 1.2410 support lvl since – we await payrols today but i think market again looking for […]
SEK after Riksbank July meeting
EUR/SEK working its way towards our long-term target at 8.40 (a bit faster than anticipated) New repo path shows a 30% probability for a cut in September. This is based on international/ European developments as the domestic growth and labour market forecasts are raised slightly.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – So now the decks fully cleared – US holiday tomorrow so expect a holding pattern into the ECB on Thursday – 1.2550 held on the dip yest , 1.2610/15 was the pivot yesterday so expect some weak stops 1.2620/40 topside – ultimately 1.2550/1.2670 for now.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – So after Friday afternoons squeeze as people took further shorts off the table into the w/e, the break has allowed people to digest the news further and we have moved back into the range as people view the summit news as positive however realise there is still a long way to go […]
Currency Outlook: Euro fallout: GBP beware schadenfreude
We believe Greece will remain in the euro, but analyse the situation using a simple decision tree framework to look at other possible scenarios. We would caution that GBP may not be the shelter from the euro storm that many suggest. There are grounds for GBP’s resilience, but these could vanish were the euro situation […]
Speculative Positions
Recent reversals in USD/CAD and GBP/USD confirmed by positioning data SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite is falling. RAI is working its way through its support area in a continuation pattern of the previous sharp fall. Summary of the speculative accounts in the Commitment of Traders report for the period 25 April […]
Speculative Positions
Positive GBP sentiment SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite ended the week slightly better but off the weekly highs.
Technical Analysis
Weaker SEK & AUD and focus on European yield spreads… EUR/USD The 1.3058 ref is exposed… EUR/JPY Ought to test supports below… AUD/USD The recent 1.0226 low exposed… EUR/SEK Headed back over 8.93… USD/SEK Back in a bullish impulse… EUR/NOK Must break the 21day EMA…
European FX Daily – Chinese exports up, imports down
– European FX leads modest rally vs the USD, Asian equities mixed – Bank of Japan kept policy on hold as expected – China’s export growth higher than expected, imports disappointed – France’s industrial output likely rose in February
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
USD performance mixed in undecided market; negative AUDNZD outlook may extend The resonance of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s dovish comments seem to have faded in the FX markets on Wednesday as USD performance was mixed, with the commodity block under some pressure. While the February durable goods number was an improvement on January, it came in […]
Euro-outlook stabilized but still vulnerable
The Greek debt negotiations to reduce Greek debt/GDP to 120% by 2020 have been accepted as Euro zone finance ministers this morning approved the €130bn second Greek bail-out package. ECB will participate by contributing approx.
Currency Strategy
Small and sound supersede size For the past two years, our long-term outlook has been focused on fundamentals as being the most important driver for currencies. The intensification of the euro crisis last summer made undervalued (fundamentally weak) currencies appreciate temporarily.