Tag Archives: NOK
New Financial Forecasts
Norway: We expect Norges Bank to cut rates by two times 25bp next summer. There will however not be any such signals at the upcoming MPC meeting in December.
Divergent monetary policy between Norway and Sweden
We believe the Riksbank will cut rates by 25bp in December. The Riksbank’s three weeks’ old inflation forecast was 0.4pp off the mark and
Norway: Somewhat higher, but still below forecast
• Somewhat higher core inflation• But still well below Norges Bank’s view • But weaker NOK more than enough to offset lower inflation
Time for Scandi inflation data
In Sweden our forecasts for CPI and CPIF inflation are weaker than the Riksbank expects. If right, it will put additional pressure on the Riksbank to cut the policy rate.
Norway: Higher inflation, but still on the downside to Norges Bank
Somewhat higher inflation Core inflation fell from 2.5% in August to 1.7% in September surprising everybody including Norges Bank.
Norges Bank right now
No change in rate path Downside surprises: lower inflation, signs of weakness in domestic demand, lower rates abroad.
Norway: Another increase in registered unemployment
• Registered unemployment increased again • Against our expectations, household credit growth increased in September • Today’s figures confirm a slowing – but so far not more than forecast by Norges Bank
Macro Viewpoint: Moderate pick-up in Norwegian retail sales
Retail sales slightly up in September after a weak summer Trend is more or less flat Small drop in LFS unemployment
The Global Macro Pulse
Overnight Price Action The dollar rally continued in Asia, albeit with less momentum in the majors. AUSDUSD dipped to a low of 0.9459, but popped back up to 0.9479.
USD still in freefall
The US dollar continued its correction against most currencies last week, with the DXY dollar index testing 79.2.
The Global Macro Pulse
Overnight Price Action Asian markets have traded with a bullish risk/bearish USD tone. S&P futures are up 0.4%,
Low for longer’ still applies in Scandinavia
After last week’s rather uneventful Riksbank meeting, we keep our view that the Swedish money market will continue to price the Riksbank ‘low for longer’ and