Tag Archives: NOK
NOR: Underlying inflation below Norges Bank’s forecast
CPI: -0.5%, 0.5% y/y (SEB expected -0.1%, 0.8% y/y, previous 0.0%, 0.5% y/y) CPI-ATE: -0.3%, 1.2% y/y (SEB expected 0.0%, 1.5% y/y, previous 0.4%, 1.4% y/y)
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Have to say surprised by the follow through to the downside yesterday – we never looked back from the rate change announcement taking out the support at 1.2450/1.2410 – and very little retracement back above that 1.2410 support lvl since – we await payrols today but i think market again looking for […]
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – So after Friday afternoons squeeze as people took further shorts off the table into the w/e, the break has allowed people to digest the news further and we have moved back into the range as people view the summit news as positive however realise there is still a long way to go […]
Currency Weekly: Commodity currencies: not quite what you think
With commodity prices falling in recent weeks, the market has been selling the traditional commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, and CAD). However, the relationship is more complex than it appears.
FX Ringside
Norway: Surprisingly low FX purchases in June Today Norges Bank announced FX purchases for June. To our surprise the central bank chose to keep FX purchases flat at (selling) NOK 350m/day. Since the revised government budget was presented on May 10th the oil price has fallen some 5%.
Speculative Positions
Recent reversals in USD/CAD and GBP/USD confirmed by positioning data SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite is falling. RAI is working its way through its support area in a continuation pattern of the previous sharp fall. Summary of the speculative accounts in the Commitment of Traders report for the period 25 April […]
Speculative Positions
Positive GBP sentiment SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite ended the week slightly better but off the weekly highs.
Technical Analysis
Minor corrections running late, weaker NOK… EUR/USD Resistance cluster on top… EUR/JPY 233d ma high capping (?) NZD/USD Rechecking the flag exit… EUR/SEK Sitting at the 55d ma low… USD/SEK Looking for buyers… EUR/NOK More upside action awaited… NOK/SEK Support under pressure.
FX Ringside
Riksbank to remain at 1.50% – small SEK positive We expect Riksbank to remain on hold at 1.50% tomorrow. Our internal survey conducted yesterday only showed 18% of the respondents voting for a 25bps cut. The interest rate market however disagrees pricing a 65% probability for rates being lowered to 1.25%.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
EUR-crosses prone to sell the fact on Eurogroup; Spain budget also in focus EUR-crosses could be vulnerable to a “sell the fact” response on today’s European Finance Ministers meeting (0800 GMT). Markets have been led to believe this will result in agreement on a plan to combine the unused 240bn lending capacity of the EFSF […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
USD performance mixed in undecided market; negative AUDNZD outlook may extend The resonance of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s dovish comments seem to have faded in the FX markets on Wednesday as USD performance was mixed, with the commodity block under some pressure. While the February durable goods number was an improvement on January, it came in […]
FX Ringside
Risk-on as euro outlook continues to stabilize The euro remains surprisingly strong, probably still benefiting from short-covering previous very stretched, negative positioning in the currency. This situation is likely to continue for some time yet with the Euro-zone at least temporarily stable due to Greece being no longer in focus and European banks apparently possessing […]