Tag Archives: EUR/JPY

FX Weekly: EUR Still Set to Slide

Summary G10 Themes: Sell EURJPY: An Outlier Among EUR Crosses EUR crosses face downside risks from structural factors and potential ECB easing expectations. EURJPY, in particular, looks vulnerable, having been propped up by JPY short positioning ahead of the end-April BoJ meeting. We are selling spot, positioning for a 3% move lower. We also like […]

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: PMI data should not have been a surprise

EUR USD (1.3145) The euro reacted to a worse-than-expected Italian manufacturing PMI (43.8) number yesterday and plunged. While the number was certainly poor, what triggered the sharp reaction in the euro was that it was perceived as a surprise.

Technical Analysis

€ bearish prints, NZD under pressure, oil lower… EUR/USD Bearish response… EUR/JPY Heading for a 104.20/60 test… NZD/USD Exiting the bear flag… EUR/SEK And back at support… USD/SEK Buyers meeting offers… EUR/NOK Setback… NZD/NOK Make or break?

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Eurozone-US cleft fails to unsettle the euro

EUR USD (1.3225) It is hard to ignore the positive tone of the recent US data – the headline ISM data was strongest in 10 months, the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey revealed that US banks saw increased demand for lending in Q1 (although eurozone branches of these banks did not show the trend) and […]

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Growth has yet to trump austerity

EUR USD (1.3250) A closer look at the latest soft US GDP data reveals that although consumer spending rose 2.9 percent, the fastest pace in five quarters, it was not accompanied by a parallel growth in public spending.

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Chorus for growth is not in harmony

EUR USD (1.3200) A two-notch S&P downgrade with a negative outlook for Spain has come as a result of the risks to the country’s budgetary performance from shrinking economic growth. This downgrade seems to support a recent wave of opinion against austerity.

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The growth gap gets a voice

EUR USD (1.3225) French presidential candidate Hollande’s suggestions for boosting growth include the issue of infrastructurerelated eurobonds, the mobilisation of existing structural funds and a financial transaction tax.

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP lower, HUF rising and bonds back on track… EUR/USD Ending reaction?… EUR/JPY Still struggling in the bands… EUR/GBP Looking for a new low… EUR/SEK Sideways then higher… USD/SEK Waiting for buyers… EUR/NOK Slow… EUR/HUF Falling out of bed.

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The austerity dilemma

EUR USD (1.3195) The successful Dutch government bond sale managed to offset the negative sentiment that the political upheaval in Netherlands triggered in the market. Nevertheless the collapse of the Dutch government bought into forefront the challenges of trying to implement austerity programmes, not just in the periphery but in the AAA-rated core economies too.

Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro’s puzzling resilience

EUR USD (1.3150) Since weeks the euro is wedged in a narrow range closer to the year-high than the year-low. This trend did not alter yesterday even though the political risk in the eurozone leapt back into the market focus.

Technical Analysis

Weaker SEK & AUD and focus on European yield spreads… EUR/USD The 1.3058 ref is exposed… EUR/JPY Ought to test supports below… AUD/USD The recent 1.0226 low exposed… EUR/SEK Headed back over 8.93… USD/SEK Back in a bullish impulse… EUR/NOK Must break the 21day EMA…

FX Market Technical Research

EUR/USD has again failed to maintain a minor break of the 55 day ma and sold off back into its range. Directly overhead sit the 1.3305/20 downtrends, and these continue to effectively block the topside. These are the 5 month downtrend and the 8 month channel.