Tag Archives: EUR
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3233, with early demand into Asian dealing taking it to highs of $1.32499. Rate reversed to $1.3211 before recovering in steps to $1.3240 into the European open.
Euro-outlook stabilized but still vulnerable
The Greek debt negotiations to reduce Greek debt/GDP to 120% by 2020 have been accepted as Euro zone finance ministers this morning approved the €130bn second Greek bail-out package. ECB will participate by contributing approx.
US FX Market Summary
The EUR strengthened Friday on hopes that the complex negotiations over a new debt relief package for Greece were coming together ahead of a Monday meeting of euro-zone finance ministers. The common currency has rallied 4.2% against the dollar since touching its lowest level in more than 16 months in January.
European FX Daily – Risk rally after Greek lawmakers pass austerity plans
– The AUD and SGD lead rally vs the USD, Asian equities up 0.2-0.7% – Greek parliament approves austerity measures – Greek PSI in focus – Firmer US data is supportive of the risk complex
Currency Outlook: GBP – Slave to EUR fortunes
The market remains fixated by the euro crisis, ensuring that GBP largely takes its cue from EUR-USD. We examine five potential catalysts for this link to break. While there is much fiscal pain to come, there are not yet grounds for GBP to move independently of EUR-USD.
FX Ringside
Don’t blame BOE if sterling weakens In October the Bank of England (BOE) announced its decision to increase the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) by GBP 75bn to GBP 275bn for a period of four months ending only a few days ago.
European FX Daily – RBA boosted AUD
– AUD surged as RBA unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4.25% – BoJ performed stealth intervention in USDJPY in Q4 2011 – German output likely to surprise stronger – We recommended buying USDCHF in cash and options as euro risks rise
Speculative Positions
Main conclusions Scaling back on net short EUR position and stretched Scandies SEB RAI and the Carry index moving higher and RAI is now closing in an the recent highs seen in mid Oct 2011.
US FX Market Summary
The JPY surged to its strongest level in nearly five months against the dollar and rose more than 1% against the EUR Monday, as investors fleeing Europe’s debt crisis took shelter in Japan’s currency despite warnings from policymakers that yen strength was unwarranted.
Currency Strategy
Small and sound supersede size For the past two years, our long-term outlook has been focused on fundamentals as being the most important driver for currencies. The intensification of the euro crisis last summer made undervalued (fundamentally weak) currencies appreciate temporarily.
European Market Summary
The EUR was mostly firmer in European trade Tuesday, underpinned by solid German and Chinese economic data, but it struggled to make much headway against the dollar as the euro zone crisis continued to weigh on investor confidence.
EUR, AUD higher in Asia after Chinese data beats expectations
The EUR and AUD strengthened in the Asian session after China’s Q4 growth beat market estimates with 8.9 percent y/y growth recorded versus 8.7 percent expected – but still lower than Q3’s 9.1 percent. The expansion was the slowest we have seen in 10 quarters, with slower exports and the effect of measures against property […]