Tag Archives: EUR/USD
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2285, off traded lows of $1.2260, with rate under pressure into early Asian trade as traders marked the rate lower on reaction to weaker than expected Chinese inflation data and today’s Eurogroup expectations dampened by Finland’s comments Friday highlighting the ongoing political divide.
Asia today: Inflation benign in China; A cue for more easing?
With the aftermath of Friday’s US non-farm payroll report resulting in a definite risk-off sentiment, risk currencies took another dip lower at the start of trading in Asia, but failed to dramatically follow through.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Self-defeating policy change
EUR USD (1.2380) Yesterday’s ECB rate decision kick-started the euro’s latest sell-off. Although the policy shifts were small, respectively, 25bp off the main policy rate and the deposit rate, they nonetheless overstepped market expectations; the average forecasts were for 10bp or 15bp changes.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Spotlight stays on the euro
The release of US non-farm payrolls this afternoon is likely to be the primary focus of the FX markets today but it is the weakness of the euro that continues to hold our attention.
Technical Analysis
Most trends now back on track after the prolonged corrections triggered by the EU summit last Friday. Spain (Italy) made a impressive return into the limelight (sharply falling equites, zooming bond yield (net up 56 bps in two days), widening spreads)).
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Bears Focus on June Low. The EUR pushes lower with bears now focused on the 1 June low of $1.2288. Potentially slowing losses, the Bollinger band meets the $1.2364 hourly low but bulls really need to recover the 21-DMA up at $1.2546 to re-establish themselves.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Thursday at $1.2393 after rate was pressed to extended lows of $1.23639 after the ECB cut rates by 25bps, the deposit rate cut to 0.0%, as well as ECB Draghi’s negative growth outlook.
Asia today: It’s wait-and-see for the US non-farm payroll report
Asia was on Non-farm payroll alert Friday with activity confining currency pairs to tight ranges during the session, though with a slight risk-off bias.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Late positioning in sterling ahead of BoE decision
EUR USD (1.2530) Ahead of the ECB meeting and likely BoE announcement on easing, investors are still debating the outcomes of the EU summit.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Long-term charts point to further EUR weakness
Event risk into the weekend should continue to keep trading volumes supressed, but that is not to say there is nothing going on. Yesterday, Bobls jumped the gun on the ECB announcement today by turning bullish after a month of selling.
EURUSD rally neutralized ahead of ECB, key US data
Last Friday’s summit reaction proved yet another “kneejerk-and-done” for EURUSD, as we are back where we came from ahead of today’s ECB and key US data today and tomorrow. What next?
Technical Analysis
EUR/SEK yesterday passed its 8.6990 key support, falling to lows not seen since the autumn 2000. For today we should keep in mind that normally after such a big move as yesterday’s there’s a ~80% probability of an initial dip to a fresh low followed by a bounce into yesterday’s range.