Tag Archives: ECB
FX Daily
Today’s ECB meeting will be the main attraction. We expect the ECB to deliver anaggressive easing move by cutting the refi and deposit rates, taking the latter intonegative territory.
Citi: ECB Preview
In a note to clients today, CitiFX summarized Market expectations ahead of the ECB with the following scenarios ranked from most to least positive for EUR:
ECB has the potential to surprise
Market movers ahead • Lower inflation in the euro area has also strengthened our expectations that the ECB will deliver an aggressive easing move at Thursday’s meeting.
Don’t Fret About SNB Floor
What can the SNB do if the ECB cuts rates on Thursday? Assuming the floor stays inplace there are three possibilities:
FI Eye-Opener: Increasingly hard to dismiss deflation risks
Bonds continued to take a hit yesterday on both sides of the Atlantic and curves bear-steepened. The German 10-year yield leaped by some 4bp,
EUR: “Time For Talking Nearly Over”
The euro weakened in May following numerous ECB Council members’ comments that made it explicitly clear that additional monetary easing would be taken at the next meeting on 5th June.
FX Daily
The most interesting data release today is euro-zone inflation in May, which weexpect will decline back to this cycle-low of 0.5% y/y from 0.7% y/y in April.
FI Eye-Opener: The truth is out there – finally
Bond yields rose yesterday and curves steepened, modestly in German yields but more so in the US. The US 10-year yield leaped 5bp, bringing the yield back to above 2.50% (but only to levels seen early last week).
ECB preview: Even a package deal not enough to sustain a bond rally
There can be little doubt the ECB will provide a whole package of easing measures in its meeting on Thursday, including rate cuts, liquidity measures and a conditional LTRO.
Here is how much the ECB can move EUR/USD
There are many moving parts to the upcoming ECB decision. Here we look at the impact on FX across three different dimensions: the price, quantity and quality of money.
The Global Macro Pulse
Although EURUSD is flat at 1.3627, weak building approvals data helped push AUDUSD down to 0.9265 and USDJPY pushed up to 102.03.
FI Eye-Opener: Huge week ahead
The week starts with good news from China, as the official PMI rose to 50.8 in May (from 50.4 in April). The report showed a braod-based recovery in manufacturing activity.