Tag Archives: Australia
Risks & Drivers – Tapering our global growth forecasts
Positive growth signals continue to trickle out across the globaleconomy. The Eurozone economic recovery has stabilised, havingrecorded its second consecutive quarter of modest growth in Q3.
Australia: State revenues ride the mining capex wave; QTC spreads to benefit
Bottom line The mining boom delivers significant revenue benefits to the resource-rich states both directly and indirectly via the capex boom. Mining capex drives employment (payroll tax) and population growth, state final demand and, hence, house prices (stamp duties). Given current semi-government bond relativities, investors who expect the mining capex boom to continue should view […]
AUD/USD ANALYSIS
The Australian dollar inched slightly higher in Asia trade Tuesday, helped in part by minutes from the latest meeting of Australia’s central bank board. At its Dec. 6 policy meeting, when the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the second straight month, the bank said that the relative strength of the local economy […]
Australia: Still close to full employment in November
November employment data was a bit weaker than expected, with the number of people employed falling by 6,300, although revisions to previous months partially offset this decline.
EU Treaty change: Its all about timing
“Life is about timing” – Carl Lewis Australian GDP data overnight was higher than expected with the Q3 growth comparison rising 1.0 percent from the previous quarter (+2.5% year on year), in addition to an upward revision to the Q2 data itself.
Australia: Divergence between commodity prices and AU 1y1y opens up an opportunity
As highlighted in Figure 1, the recent rally in the AU 1y swap rate 1y forward (AU 1y1y) appears to have been driven by a collapse in our Australian data surprise index (DSI).
Australia: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) – Growth forecasts appear optimistic if commodity prices continue their decline
Background: Given the change in policy direction delivered on Tuesday, today’s SoMP from the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to attract a greater than normal level of attention.
Australia: RBA Deputy Governor Battellino signals a ‘wait-and-see’ approach
In an address to an Australian and New Zealand investment conference, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Ric Battellino appeared to signal a “wait-and-see” approach to policy settings.
Australia: Employment surprises to the upside in September
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 20,400 (0.2%) to 11,451,200. Full-time employment increased 10,800 persons to 8,044,200, and part-time employment increased 9,600 persons to 3,407,100. Unemployment decreased 3,800 (0.6%) to 634,200. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased 6,200 to 453,100, and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased 2,400 […]
Australia and New Zealand Weekly: Will the RBA start swimming with the global tide?
Central bank watch: Australia – No compelling reason for the RBA to do anything Doing nothing appears to be the strategy that offers the RBA the best risk/return. That said, the RBA used this week’s statement to state that it is ready willing and able to ease policy if required.
Australia: RBA board minutes – ‘Market pricing might not be giving an accurate reading of expectations’
The Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) decided to leave the cash rate at 4.75% following the September board meeting. International Financial Markets:”Members began their discussion by observing the extreme volatility in financial markets over the past month, which reflected fears about a slowdown in the global economy and escalation of sovereign debt tensions in the United […]
Australia: New seasonally-adjusted methodology for measuring CPI to help RBA stay on target
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has adjusted both the trimmed mean and weighted median methodology used to measure underlying CPI inflation (the methodology for headline inflation is unchanged). Introduction of the new methodology follows the sixteenth series review of the consumer price index.