Tag Archives: AUD
Bernanke puts a new sets of skids under the dollar, for now
Early in the Asian session RBA’s Debelle gave an additional prop to the AUD’s revival overnight by saying that the AUD is in the “right balance” relative to the (near record high) terms of trade while adding that Australia’s mortgage rates are about where the central bank wants them to be.
FX Daily Strategist: US
Better IFO followed by profit taking on EUR-crosses Markets have been trading without any clear sense of conviction, however the mood in FX and equities has been more riskoff. The concern appears centred on Spain with the IBEX down 1.60%, while other bourses are only about 0.20% lower- this however is at odds with price […]
FX CFTC: Dollar longs pared as EUR, JPY and GBP are bought
Currency speculators had a busy time in the week to last Tuesday with many position adjustments occuring all resulting in a net reduction of long dollar positions to the lowest level in a month, according to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures and Trading Commission. The net long dollar position versus eight IMM […]
US Market Summary
The USD stumbled against the euro and the yen Friday, after a U.S. housing report cast doubt on the strength of the economic turnaround and called into question the prior week’s ascendancy in the U.S. currency. New home sales in the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month in February, helping push the euro up […]
FX Focus: AUD outlook – Two sides of the same coin
* We recently lowered our AUD/USD forecast path (Emerging Markets Quarterly: Repositioning, not playing defence, 20 March 2012) and now expect AUD/USD to trade in a 1.04-1.07 range over the next 12 months. This is consistent with our technical strategists’ expectation of AUD/USD remaining in a 1.01-1.10 range over the next 6-8 months.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Weaker US housing data sees USD stronger? FX market still struggling for direction FX markets on Wednesday continued to reflect a lack of conviction. Existing home sales disappointed, but despite the resulting rally in US Treasuries, USD finished stronger against most G10 currencies, gaining most against AUD – although, as would be expected given the […]
AUD pushed lower as China flash PMI data slides further
Signs of weakening global growth were reflected in today’s flash estimate of China’s manufacturing PMI data for March, which slid to 48.1 from 49.6 last time. Note this is the first “real month” of data this year now that the Lunar New Year distortions are out of the way and is not suggesting a rosy […]
Fears of China slowdown retreat; risk currencies regain ground
In contrast to BHP Billiton’s gloomy outlook for China demand for iron ore announced yesterday, Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) issued its latest forecasts – and it was certainly upbeat. The agency expects iron ore exports to rise by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year on the back […]
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Paradigm Lost? Treasury sell-off fails to support USD Just when the FX market was settling into its new paradigm of bond-yield watching, the spectacle of US Treasury yields shooting higher in the NY afternoon while the dollar heads lower is cause for some fresh soul-searching.
Risk appetite index is back in the risk-neutral zone
The SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) * RAI moved back into it’s the risk-neutral zone after being in the risk-aversion zone almost all the time since Aug 2011. Since RAI have been correlated with the OECD leading indicator (which is lagging two months) this is a positive sign for the economic recovery going forward.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
USD loses most of its earlier-week gains; soft US core a factor A quick look-back shows the USD was actually weaker on the week (in DXY terms at least) and within G10 was only stronger versus CAD, NOK and JPY. USD gains earlier in the week followed the break higher in Treasury yields, the latter […]
FX Daily Strategist: US
US yields still in the driver seat pushing USD higher US Treasury yields remain the primary driver in FX, and yesterday’s fall back in yields saw a partial reversal of most of the moves witnessed in the prior three days, with the USD softening particularly vs. NZD (helped by very strong PMI) but also AUD.