Trade Ideas
FX trade ideas for 2014
This year has seen a strong recovery in the euro and dollar at the expense of commoditycurrencies, Scandies and the JPY. Central banks still play the most important role in guiding FXmarkets,
Buy a 6.70 USD/SEK one-touch over non-farm payrolls, PPM, Riksbank- and Fed rate decisions.
Whilst we are long-term SEK bulls (and project a 5-6% trade-weighted appreciation over the coming 1-2 years) we see several short-term risk factors which may weigh on the Swedish currency.
Trading recommendation: Sell GBP/USD
• In our view, the surge in GBP/USD since the spring is related to expectations of stronger growthon the back of improving indicators and
Trade Idea: Sell the EUR
EURUSD below 1.3206/1.3186 should confirm a top EURUSD is declining sharply following its brief foray above 1.3400,
Aussie “Normalization” Has Only Just Begun …
We favor digital puts or 1×1 put spreads to express our view that AUD will resume its slide.
Trade Idea: Bullish USDCHF
For USDCHF, key trend and price support at .9180/30 has held firm, and a basing attempt is under way.
Tactical Trade Idea: Go long CNY NDF vs USD
Trade Detail: Sell USD/CNY NDF 1M. 1M NDF entry at 6.1875 (spot ref 6.1365). Target 6.16 (45bp gain to fixing, includes carry) with stop at 6.20
Some like it hot
Seasonal price swings stem from the comings and goings in, and changes of behaviour of, groups of market participants at different points in time.
Buy 3m AUDUSD Lower…
We continue to expect the BoJ’s aggressive policy to continue to drive USDJPY higher, towards 105 in three months and 120 in twelve months.
Trade idea: short PLN/CZK
Market yesterday (including myself) were looking for a cut from Polish cb. As they did nothing, pln rallied sharply.
Market Spotlight: GBPUSD hold long term trendline
GBPUSD is holding its long term upward trendline and attempting a base at current levels. We are turning bullish targeting 1.6379/1.6400 initially.