Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · DXY: Through trend resistance from the 2011 peak with risk to the 55-DMA, 79.69. A close above would aim through the mid-Q1 spike high 80.12, closer to topping barriers, 80.50/70 (threat to 2012 peak, 81.78)
Daily FX Technical Strategy: NOK shadows oil
The spike in crude oil prices to new 2012 highs overnight is lending support to the NOK. EUR/NOK is being driven relentlessly lower and following a weeekly close below 7.4190, we would be encouraged to target the 2003 low at 7.2175.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD’s key day reversal on Wednesday could mark the end of the recent bullish consolidation phase. Therefore expect to see further weakness in the days to come. The 1.3322 early February high is now being eyed.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: The break out of Monday’s inside day in the EUR/USD should determine the trend for the next few days. Since the break has been to the upside, the 1.3550 December high is now being targeted.
Technical Analysis
All eyes on the LTRO results now… EURUSD could be a “buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact” experience… GBPUSD could extend the fresh yearly high scored, but there is more resistance above to consider… USDJPY under 80.00 would expose 79.55, but back over 80.80 would be renewed near-term bullish…
Technical Analysis
EURUSD looks set to score one more high before dropping again… Bunds bullishly broke above key refs yesterday and look staged to score fresh cycle highs… US tens trails behind but also look bullish…
Currency Weekly: FX and oil: Drilling down to what actually happens
Rather than look at how economics suggests FX “should” behave when oil prices rise, we examine how FX “has” behaved in the past. Oil producers are the winners. However, one might have expected all “risk on” currencies to suffer and safe haven FX to thrive with lower equities.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Trend ending signals for USD/JPY
Last Friday USD/JPY closed above its weekly cloud for the first time since Jul 2007 suggesting that the long-term downtrend is over. If this is the case then we would expect to see further confirmation this Wednesday with the dollar closing the month above its 21-month average (80.90).
Technical Analysis
Euro rally continued Friday without much sign of stretch, still surprisingly small adjustments to the non-commercial short euro position (latest reporting period = Tuesday close last week).
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has cleared the 1.3322 resistance and at this point we must allow for a further rally near term towards the top of its 6 month down channel at 1.3520 currently. The 50% retracement at 1.3435 (of the sell off from the October high) is likely to offer some interim resistance en route.
Technical Analysis
Euro strength on hold overnight but looks likely to continue for at least another day or two. Oil, stocks and bonds all rose (but for how much longer?). EURUSD next correction targets, 1.3435 and/or the 1.36-area,
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Euro delayed reaction
The market appears to be slowly responding to the Greek bailout deal given the general euro recovery yesterday. EUR/GBP is leading the charge but if EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD all follow through by breaking their respective recent range highs today, then we would expect the short covering move to snowball.