Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis
Most trends now back on track after the prolonged corrections triggered by the EU summit last Friday. Spain (Italy) made a impressive return into the limelight (sharply falling equites, zooming bond yield (net up 56 bps in two days), widening spreads)).
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Bears Focus on June Low. The EUR pushes lower with bears now focused on the 1 June low of $1.2288. Potentially slowing losses, the Bollinger band meets the $1.2364 hourly low but bulls really need to recover the 21-DMA up at $1.2546 to re-establish themselves.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Struggles to hold above $1.0300. The AUD continues to struggle to hold above the $1.0300 level and a close above is needed to retain the overall focus on tests of the April monthly highs.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Long-term charts point to further EUR weakness
Event risk into the weekend should continue to keep trading volumes supressed, but that is not to say there is nothing going on. Yesterday, Bobls jumped the gun on the ECB announcement today by turning bullish after a month of selling.
Technical Analysis
EUR/SEK yesterday passed its 8.6990 key support, falling to lows not seen since the autumn 2000. For today we should keep in mind that normally after such a big move as yesterday’s there’s a ~80% probability of an initial dip to a fresh low followed by a bounce into yesterday’s range.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Slips Under 5 & 21-DMAs. The EURO sees mixed daily studies with the stochastic recovering in neutral territory but 10-day momentum fading at the zero line as the market slips under the 5 & 21-DMAs, which now offer initial resistance at $1.2561/81.
Global Technical Watch – Quick Charts
A consistent breakdown in several EUR crosses warns of bearish follow-through for EUR/SEK and EUR/NZD. EUR/AUD is approaching year lows near 1.2130/50, and a break below this zone likely would add to the bearish evidence.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Tests upper 21 day Bollinger band. The AUD is starting to look a little tired and is risking a pullback to the key support noted at $1.0158.
NZDUSD – fairly priced, but…
NZDUSD has been on a tear lately, pushing impressively back above the 0.8000 level. The drivers for the rally suggest that the currency pair is fairly priced for now, but the rally may have a hard time from here.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: EUR/NZD all-time low in sight
With the USD Index locked in a ranging pattern, we expect trading to be subdued today by the US Independence Day holiday. Bigger picture we are USD bullish but this week listless sideways drift is the likely outcome ahead of the release of US NFP on Friday.
Technical Analysis
Mid body testing into its third session… EUR/USD Still mid body testing… EUR/GBP Bear triangle?… EUR/JPY So far bids at mid body… EUR/SEK In the key support zone… USD/SEK Still in a narrow range… EUR/NOK Mid body bounce.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Support at 5 & 21-DMAs. The EUR sees mixed daily studies with the stochastic recovering in neutral territory but 10-day momentum fading at the zero line.