Forex Trades
FX Ringside: USD skew indicates stronger dollar
Norway: Rate cut hopes farfetched Norges Bank will leave rates on hold at 2.25% this week adding a more dovish tone compared with its surprisingly hawkish previous message. We believe the market is simply incorrect to discount a 30% probability of a rate cut.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Plunge through trend and chart support negates basing effort and leaves threat this week through the recent 1.3497 low to key 1.3428/10 area GBP/USD: Plunging through a support vacuum towards key retracement support at 1.5490 this week, with overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Faltering back from 1.3900/38 resistance to damage small basing effort. Risk back through 1.3497 low to key 1.3428/10 area early this week GBP/USD: New correction low aiming at key retracement support at 1.5490 into month-end, with overshoot risk to 1.5345/5296
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Immediate bear pressures eased by intraday bounce, but whilst below 1.3938 mid-month threat lies through 1.3428 to 1.3305, with September risk still for 1.3050 GBP/USD: Attempted rebound from key retrace/price support, 1.5785/81, but only above 1.5992 eases bear risk. Else, late Q3 threat is lower to 1.5490, and maybe 1.5345/5296
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Plunge through critical 1.3772/1.3665 support area from the 2010-11 up trend aims at 1.3428 today with September risk growing for 1.2859 GBP/USD: Attempted basing in the 1.5912/05 area dismissed with spotlight today on key retrace/price support, 1.5785/81
Global Macro Strategy – Trade Ideas – Sell EUR/GBP
In an ad hoc comment sent to clients on 18 August, we said that we would look to sell EUR/GBP should support at 0.8645 be penetrated. This support has now gone intra-day, and we think the time is ripe for further GBP gains versus EUR. To repeat our thoughts: The chart below (Figure 1) looks […]
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: GBP/USD: Lacklustre rebound activity leaves risk through 1.5921/05 support today to key retrace support/Q3 low, 1.5785/81 into mid-month (we look to hold here initially) EUR/USD: Flagged “inside” Wednesday bounce leaves “outside” Tuesday plunge through 200-day MA weighing for a move through the 1.3973 recent trough to the 1.3837/1.3772 support area
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Q3 trend reversal enhanced targeting 1.4055 this week with 1.4015/11 key to defend to avoid a more negative topping threat GBP/USD: Eyeing the critical 200-day moving average and key support zone at 1.6124/01. Growing risk of surrender for a more a negative tone to target 1.5781
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Break below the medium-term upward trendline keeps the bias lower within the broader range, with risk down to 1.4109/04 and then 1.4055. GBP/USD: Reverts back to the critical 200-day moving average and key support zone at 1.6110/01. A break through here would confirm a bearish tone, with risk lower to 1.5781.
Trade Idea: Sell EURUSD pre Jackson Hole for 1.4000
Continued failure at the 1.4518/00 resistance zone keeps the bias lower, through 1.4355 and 1.4259 initial support levels to the 1.4055 range low and then the 200-day moving average, currently placed at 1.3978. EUR/USD has failed once again ahead of the critical 1.4518/37/79 resistance cluster as the market holds below Tuesday’s peak at 1.4500.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Rebound results in a break above 1.4453; however, medium-term trading range still remains intact, and while below 1.4518/37/79 resistance risk is to 1.4150 GBP/USD: Topping structure continues to unfold after the market failed at 1.6573, below the 1.6619 high. We still look for a breakdown through 1.6422 support for 1.6300
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Yesterday’s failure ahead of the 1.4453 resistance hurdle keeps the short-term bias lower to 1.4259/32 chart/38.2% Fibonacci retracement support zone GBP/USD: Decline continues after reversal from 1.6619 resistance. Risk today is for a break through 1.6422 trend support, which would in turn complete a top and expose 1.6300