Forex News
EURUSD: the break coming at an awkward time
The consensus wisdom would lead one to think that the market would like to wait for the US election before deciding what to do with the USD. What to do when a break occurs ahead of a key event?
Dbdaily: European Edition
HEADLINES… – Markets: Bourses initially rise after solid US payrolls but then turn lower, S&P500 closes down 0.9%, dollar strengthens. Asian bourses open softer Monday. – US: Non-farm payrolls rise 171k in Oct, above mkt, Aug/Sept revised up 84k, jobless rate nudges up.
Asia Today: Oz data clouds the RBA rate cut prospects tomorrow
Asia started this week with the USD broadly higher following the strong US jobs report on Friday. Activity was subdued but the USD’s bid tone remained intact.
Dbdaily European Edition
HEADLINES… – Markets: Bourses up solidly in CHN/Europe/US as CHN & US data impresses, Treasuries modestly weaker, dollar little changed. The Nikkei followed Wall St higher early Friday, as did most other Asian bourses. Chinese bourses modestly softer.
FX Daily Strategist: US
– BoJ just meets consensus – USDJPY at risk of fall The BoJ expanded its asset purchases by JPY 11trn (to JPY 91trn), pretty much meeting expectations ahead of the event, with the split as expected as well (5trn JGBs, 5trn bills, 1trn CP, corporate bonds, ETFs and REITs).
Germany: IFO business climate drops again in October
Defying more optimistic expectations, the downward trend in the German IFO business climate remains unbroken. The index fell to 100.0 in October from 101.4 in September, while we and the consensus expected a slight improvement to 101.6 in October.
Americas FX Daily
Spanish voting revives the euro again What happened overnight – Spanish PM Rajoy’s party performs well in regional elections – Japan’s trade data show further deterioration – Canada’s government rejects Malaysian bid for energy assets
South Africa: Daily FX Technical Strategy – Base-building near 8.50
USD/ZAR ended the week off its two-week lows, and we are looking for a consolidation this week above the 8.50-8.55 support area. Similarly for EUR/ZAR, we expect the recent consolidation near 11.00 (psychological level and previous pivot) to continue.
FX Daily Strategist: US
– AUD rallies with rebounding China sentiment eclipsing RBA easing expectations The stronger batch of activity data out of China this morning should help negate the bearish AUD view brought on by the unexpected Oct 2 RBA cut.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
– Rebounding China sentiment to provide tailwind to AUD While more mediocre US earnings releases overnight have not provided a positive catalyst in themselves, the stronger batch of activity data out of China this morning should help maintain positive sentiment.
FX Daily Strategist: US
– EURUSD still constructive, but could consolidate towards the weekend Risk-sentiment has continued to move higher helped by better still decent US earnings reports and a decision by Moody’s to affirm Spain’s investment grade rating (the lowest at Baa3 with a negative outlook) last night.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: EUR looks up
Positive moves in European equities, such as the bullish flag and double-bottom confirmation in the French CAC, along with the bullish break in Italian 10y Government Bonds toward the 2012 yield lows near 4.68%, have prompted a more optimistic outlook for the EUR.