Forex News

The slump in US non-farm payrolls on Friday sent jitters through Asia. It’s one thing for American industry to enter a short-lived inventory correction, but it is quite another for job growth to stall.

The news flow out of Greece should continue to calm down nerves, thus dampening the safe-haven demand for Bunds in the short-term. Given the risk of Friday to turn out as a bull-trap, we see downside risks for the Bund future prevailing over the course of the week.

– AUDUSD up slightly to 1.074 amid muted price action – Canadian Ivey unlikely to provide strong support for CAD – ECB is likely to signal a July hike at Thursday’s meeting

Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Break above 61.8% retracement barrier at 1.4572 opens the door to 1.4735/54 in early June. Risk for the month is back to the 1.4944 cycle high GBP/USD: Head fake below 1.6310/08 pivot area with a solid bullish “outside” Friday bounce.  Risk for further recovery early this week through the 1.6549 peak to […]

USD/CHF has now hit the base of an 8 year channel at .8351. We are alert to the idea that we are likely to see a reversal here.

Short rates globally have rallied. From here, further gains will be much more difficult, in our view. This is in particular the case in the euro area where the ECB is likely to deliver a hawkish message on Thursday. Euro short rates, and the euro, are likely to both push higher in the near term […]

News Headlines (to Sunday) Our comment: A deal on Greece is reached. But no details on PSI financing etc yet, and parliament again put off. So some of the hard decisions may still have to be taken.

All eyes fixed on NFP GBP suffers setback from lower PMI services Weekend risk: Chinese rate hike, Portugal election, Greek package

EUR wants to go higher, and will – unless payrolls are so weak as to prompt another 200pt Dow drop. UK services PMI important for GBP. Weekend risk: Chinese rate hike, Portugal election, Greek package

Following the release of US NFP today, our main focus will be on two markets: equities and rates. This can be further refined to whether the S&P500 continues to consolidate above daily cloud support on a closing basis at 1299 and whether the rally in rates markets continues.

EUR USD (1.4480) Market participants’ perceptions appear to have changed significantly since this week’s ADP and ISM index data eleases, as roughly four weeks of economic optimism devolved into pessimism in a matter of days.