Forex News
FX DAILY STRATEGY Asia – 22 June 2011
PM Papandreou and Cabinet win confidence vote; EURUSD to rebound to 1.4500 Norges Bank rhetoric will be important since they were more dovish than expected at the last meeting FOMC to firm up its dovish tone
European Sunrise – First hurdle taken…
The successful confidence vote for the Greek PM Papandreou last night should reduce systemic risks near-term and may well bring along further positive newsflow in coming days. We install tactical ‘tier 2’ spread tighteners via 5y Spain and Italy as well as tactical shorts in September Bund contracts.
Greece: Government wins vote, focus on July 3rd
Following the Greek government’s victory in this evening’s confidence vote we expect the necessary fiscal and privatisation laws to be passed on June 30. But, before the July disbursement of EU/IMF funds can be made, the EU has to come up concrete assurances on financing for the next 12 months to fill the funding gap […]
David Bloom: Greek fatigue to USD nightmare
The market should have been dominated by tomorrow’s Fed meeting and the end of QE2. Instead all our energies have gone into analysing the Greek situation and to be frank the market in Europe has got Greek fatigue.
Daily Forex Outlook: Private lenders’ voluntary burden
EUR/USD (1.4330) Wolfgang Schauble, Germany’s finance minister, suggested yesterday that a stable euro should be motivation enough for the private sector to agree to a Greek debt rollover.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Govt auctions full amount of 10?Y notes: yield – 5.42%, bid/cover – 1.68 (p2) HU: Neutral – NBH leaves policy rate unchanged at 6% (p2)
Westpac – Minutes of RBA Board meeting, June
Minutes of RBA Board meeting, June Westpac Economics anticipates one rate hike by the RBA in 2011, with the most likely timing November. The Minutes have not changed our view. The RBA Board has left interest rates unchanged since last November, when the cash rate was raised by 0.25% to 4.75% – the first move […]
Daily Currency Briefing: Europe’s fingers crossed approach
G10 Currencies EUR: Following the long meeting of the Ministers of Finance the press conference yesterday initially took the pressure off EUR-USD. And indeed the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, EU Commissioner Olli Rehn and EFSF CEO Klaus Regling had good news to announce:
European FX Daily – USD trades poorly into modest risk recovery
– European currencies lead slight rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.2-0.7% – AUD down modestly after minutes reaffirms RBA on hold until further notice – Focus on Greek parliament vote today
European Sunrise – Day of confidence?
Greek PM confidence vote tonight: while we stand ready to re-install tactical ‘Tier 2’ tightening exposure and Bund outright shorts in case of a convincing vote in favour of Papandreou, the risk of an adverse outcome is not negligible.
HK FX session wrap, orderbook & USD/Asia run
The HK session started with a carry on from the NY close with “risk on” as further stops were triggered in EURUSD as it traded up to 1.4384, while AUD went up to 1.0617.
Global Macro Daily (London Open)
Despite a month of macro disappointments, especially from the US, the earnings story remains upbeat, with momentum edging up on a three-month basis. The valuation landscape also remains supportive, reminding us that equity markets are clearly not priced for perfection (see Focus below).