Forex News

The ECB raised the refi rate by 25 bps to 1.5% as expected and kept the emergency rate corridor around the refi rate at +/- 75pts. Rates are still viewed as accommodative and inflation risks are still to the upside. Hence we maintain our view that the ECB will continue to normalise interest rates at […]

TRIN (Traders Index) in the US stock market shows that volume is still heavily skewed towards down stocks despite the rally in the index. The last time it was this extreme was at the kick off to the bear market of 2000-2003. EUR-USD retains a very bearish wave structure but only so long as 1.4578 […]

EUR USD (1.4310) The Moody’s downgrade of Portuguese sovereign caused investors to push up bond yields in Portugal and right across the eurozone periphery. The euro was set back too. 

KZ: Neutral – Net international reserves of the central bank decreased by USD 1.4bn to USD 34.6bn in June (p2) RO: Positive – May industrial new orders added 3%mom (p2)

ASTRID SCHILO (EUROPEAN ECON): We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 25bps to 1.5%. This has been pre-announced in the June press conference

* The spread between long end Hungarian government bonds and Polish government bonds (10y) has widened to around 6M high at around 150bp. From this perspective the long end HGB looks relatively attractive but given the average spread over a longer period is around 130bp, in stdev terms the current cheapness is only 0.5stdev. (chart […]

BG: Neutral – 1Q GDP grows 3.4% yoy (p2) CZ: Neutral – Wages expand 2.1% yoy in 1Q; Govt auctions CZGB 2014 CZK5.7bn: bid/cover ratio – 2.21, yield – 3.848% (p2) RO: Positive – 1Q GDP grows 1.7% yoy / Negative – April IndOut falls 0.2% SA mom (p2) SK: Positive – 1Q GDP grows […]

TOP: Moody’s Investors Service cut Portugal’s debt rating to junk status yesterday, ratcheting up the pressure on euro zone governments to work out a lasting solution to their financial woes.

The consensus is for 70k — the central tendency of the distribution is 40k-110k with the fatter tails to the upside. The 70k is the lowest consensus expectation since October of last year. Citi does not have an official forecast but our economists’  100k NFP forecast is very close to the consensus view.

MoF’s portfolio flow data show that China bought roughly JPY 1.3 trn worth of Japanese bonds and notes this April (See Figure 1). China’s bond investment had previously surpassed JPY 100bn per month, but it appears to have accelerated recently, touching 200bn in March before hitting a historic high in April.

Page 1 of 2: Global data summary Available June service-sector PMIs were mixed, with a 2.3-point drop in the Euro area index of business activity (the headline index) approximately offset by a gain in Japan.