Forex News
Global Issues: Wagging the dog: powerful swings in EM inflation spill over to DM
The next move in global inflation is down. Consumer price inflation surged to 3.7%oya in May, a rate last seen in late 2008. Much of this rise reflects rising commodity prices which have now stabilized. By early next year we anticipate global inflation to fall below 3%.
Asian CB FX Policy
The latest data show a reduction in FX reserves across much of the region, as central banks likely sold dollars amid risk aversion and currency intervention The preference appears to be stability when global conditions are uncertain and volatile Still, we notice an ongoing gradual shift towards more permissiveness of currency strength
S&P move on the US…
EUR spikes from 1.4160 to highs of 1.41995 and USDJPY fall from 79.15 to 78.89 lows. Note this actually passing Moody’s since S&P have “Creditwatch Negative” is more imminent i.e. in the next month or two VS Outlook Negative from Moody’s which could be a downgrade in the next 18 months
Daily Forex Outlook: Moody’s shifts market attention to the US
EUR/USD (1.4205) The decision by Moody’s to put US on negative watch came at one of the most illiquid times of the currency trading day yesterday and so had striking effect. The dollar declined as the credit rating agency highlighted the risks that would emerge from a failure of US lawmakers to reach a decision […]
EUR/USD support ahead of auction today?
This message from Bloomie/Mackel ahead of the Italian auctions at 10am today? So we have had a warning about the US debt situation, suspected BoJ intervention and this is all before the main event this morning. All eyes will be on the Italian bond auction at 10am BST. We will be looking at the bid […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – July 14
News KZ: Neutral – Minfin sells KZT11bn (EUR 53.5mn) 5y bonds (p2) PL: Positive – June CPI decelerates to 4.2% yoy (p2) RU: Neutral – Finance Ministry sells the lowest amount of OFZ at yesterday auction since Jan 2010 (p2)
Italy auction / KRW / Bernanke
Italian auction today – “In our view a number of factors point towards a decent outcome” – Relatively low issuance volume and favourable market positioning – Market environment has improved – Net issuance and cash-flow outlook are supportive
Macrobullets – Thursday – July 14
TOP Moodys places US AAA Govt bond rating and related ratings on review for possible downgrade citing “rising possibility debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis”. Says probability of a US default on interest payments to be “low but no longer minimis” {http://bit.ly/nprjhf} President Barack Obama abruptly walking out of a key […]
OVN FX Wrap
Asia walked in to find the dollar already weaker across the board following a seemingly dovish Bernanke and Moody’s announcement to place the US on negative watch. EURUSD had already pushed up to 1.42 with AUDUSD having popped above 1.08 to trigger stops in light liquidity.
USDJPY spikes from 78.60 to 79.60…
JPY: JAPAN MOF OFFICIAL: WILL NOT COMMENT ON WHETHER JAPAN INTERVENED IN FX MKT
It is about positioning in EEMEA FX so far
Our chart shows FX performance between January and June 2011 versus FX performance in the July 2011 sell-off period. The performance of all currencies is shown versus a 50/50 EUR/USD basket in order to make EUR referenced and USD or basket referenced currencies comparable and to filter out the impact of the EUR/USD impact. The […]
Daily Forex Outlook: Market pricing goes well beyond Greece
EUR USD (1.3990) The intense pressure on EU peripheral sovereign debt and on the euro continued yesterday. Investors seemed resigned to the idea that credit rating agencies would label any solution for the Greek crisis that emerged from the EU finance ministers a default.