Forex News
UK GDP preview
UK GDP (Q2, 1st release) – 09:30 BST/ 04:30 EST A run of soft data during recent weeks has raised question marks over whether the UK economy maintained any sort of growth at all during the second quarter of 2011.
HSBC: US debt limit stalemate could extend several weeks
Signs of progress over the last few weeks on budget negotiations in Washington have turned out to be a mirage. Negotiators appear no closer to a long-term budget agreement now than they were back in April when competing budget plans were presented by the House Budget Committee and the White House. New stop-gap plans are […]
European FX Daily – Focus on UK GDP and Richmond Fed survey
– European currencies lead rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.1-1.0% – Likely weak UK Q2 GDP to weigh on the GBP – Will Richmond Fed follow yesterday’s positive surprise from Dallas? – RBA Governor Stevens positive on the consumption outlook – How likely is Japanese intervention?
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 25 July 2011
Grid lock in US debt ceiling talks supports Gold and CHF. We like long EURCAD after Canada CPI surprise, and long NZD vs. USD, CAD and AUD into RBNZ. GBP at fresh risk if Q2 GDP fails to show any growth.
Deadlock and disappointment (Kit mainly)
The press response to Europe’s latest Greek bailout was pretty negative, maybe in part because the euro failed to gain any traction on Friday. The upshot is that we start the week with the broad EUR/USD 1.40-1.45 range holding, the mood slightly negative and not a lot of newsflow to help us along.
Overnight FX Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, USD/Asia, Greece downgrade
1) Overnight Wrap With no new debt ceiling deal in place in the US, the markets opened weak in Asia with equity futures trading down 1%. Gold and CHF were the large gainers as investors fled for safety. Gold made new highs taking out stops and jumping to 1624.
TRY WATCHERS (Turkey…)
All eyes on Turkish CB with accelerated depreciation in Lira (basket all time high) after dovish MPC last week, market scepticism on unorthodox monetary policy and jittery global markets. CBRT could slash/suspend daily $30mn FX purchase auctions and/or lift ultra-low 1.50% O/N bid rate/narrow corridor.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – Poland, Serbia, Turkey
News CZ: Positive – Finance Ministry raised its outlook for 2011 GDP growth to 2.5% (p2) PL: Positive – Govt successfully sells new 10Y benchmark POLGB (p2) TK: Dovish – CBT keeps policy, RRR unchanged, statement dovish (p2)
EU leaders delivered better then expected agreement
– Majors in tight ranges, Asia currencies up 0.4-1.7% – EU leaders delivered a better than expected agreement – A weak German Ifo may weigh on EURUSD recovery – Canadian CPI inflation to restrain BoC tightening expectations
Macrobullets – Thursday July 21
TOP: Merkel and French President Sarkozy agreed on a joint position for a second fiscal aid package for Greece, the German government confirmed Thursday {http://on.ft.com/nobRqf} Germany and France will propose a multi-billion euro bank levy at this morning’s summit in Brussels to guarantee private sector involvement in a second Greek rescue package, a move the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 July 2011
All eyes will be fixed on the EU Summit meeting Expectations of a resolution on Greece are high, and so any disappointment will weigh on sentiment China HSBC PMI will be released this morning
110 bn EUR deal between Merkel, Sarko and Trichet
The FT is headlining on this agreement though exact details were leaked only to AFP and are yet to hit the global press. The german and french press offers a variety of other insights. Le parisien and AFP cites french sources in confirming a deal was reached on a 110 bn EUR package. 50 bn […]