Forex News
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – C/A balance in April reaches 2.3% of GDP (p2) RO: Negative – MinFin sells RON 0.18bn 3Y ROMGB: yield 7.49%, (p2) TK: Neutral – 8M11 central budget primary surplus comes in at TRY 8.6bn (p2)
FX Focus: JPY – To intervene or not to intervene… what drives that decision?
We believe that several factors, such as valuation and momentum, have affected the Japanese government’s decision whether or not to intervene in the FX market. Our model suggests the probability of JPY-intervention this month is at its highest level since August 2010.
Dollar liquidity – comments from our strat guys : USD -ve
”So while this action should be bearish for the USD, the impact should not be as dramatic as was the case during similarly coordinated efforts during 2008 and early 2009, we believe.” From Bob Lynch in FX strategy, NY… The ECB announced that it will provide additional USD funding to the Euro area banking system […]
HSBC: Macrobullets Thursday
TOP: Italy facing another test As Moody’s Rating Decision Looms as Italy’s 90-day period closes at the end of this week. {http://on.wsj.com/n420W6} The government reaffirmed its intention to fully implement its fiscal reform program, following a teleconference between Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News KZ: Mixed – Kazakhstan’s real GDP expanded 6.7% yoy in Jan-July vs. 7.1% in Jan-June (p2) RU: Mixed – CBR cuts repo rate buy 25bp and hikes deposit rate by 25bp in a move to reduce money market volatility (p1)
New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – RBNZ keeps door open for hikes
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.50%, in line with the consensus forecast and market pricing. The Statement was more dovish than the June MPS, in line with our expectations (see New Zealand: RBNZ September MPS – Not that dovish, 14 September 2011). Governor Bollard noted […]
WSJ & Italy
PAUL MACKEL: Moody’s has Italy at Aa2 at the moment for l-t foreign currency. S&P at A+ and Fitch AA-. Moody’s is lagging the other agencies. So the question is if there was going to be a downgrade, would they just match S&P or Fitch or take the lead.
CDS Closing levels and comment
IRELND 5Y 800/860 (-60) BGB 5Y 275/285 (-10) PGB 5Y 1100/1150 (-75) ITALY 5Y 460/470 (-40) Core comparators GGB 5Y 58/62 +100 (+1) DBR 5Y 83/86 (-1) SPGB 5Y 385/395 (-35) FRTR 5Y 177/182 (-14) NETHER 5Y 90/94 (-2) SovX 5Y S5 339/342 (-12) RAGB 5Y 140/145 (-8)
Daily Economic Briefing: September 13, 2011
Global data summary • With the global recovery still struggling to reach escape velocity, policymakers are being forced to delay the handoff to the private sector as the engine of growth. Fiscal policy has reached its limit; indeed, it has either become a sizable drag on activity (UK, EMU) or a source of concern with […]
Australia: New seasonally-adjusted methodology for measuring CPI to help RBA stay on target
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has adjusted both the trimmed mean and weighted median methodology used to measure underlying CPI inflation (the methodology for headline inflation is unchanged). Introduction of the new methodology follows the sixteenth series review of the consumer price index.
S&P on Australian banks
SYDNEY (Dow Jones) – Australia’s banking sector is vulnerable to the squeeze in global liquidity conditions and any negative swings in investor sentiment, Standard & Poor’s Ratings credit analyst for the country said Tuesday, illustrating the growing threat from Europe’s spiralling debt crisis.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Negative – July C/A posts CZK 12.8bn deficit (p2) HU: Negative – Government supports FX mortgage plan but does not force banks to provide HUF financing (p2) PL: Neutral – July C/A posts EUR 1.6bn deficit (p2) (p2) RO: Mixed – August CPI fell to 4.3%yoy, about 30bp below market consensus, Jan-July C/A […]