Forex News
Russia flows and eod
Despite expected quiet day and thin market, we got the latter but definitely not the former. RUB rallies 2% vs USD and 1% vs fx basket (backed by strong EUR) and rates enjoy further rally of 10-20 bps.
Merkel and Sarkozy call for ‘durable’ solution for Greece, but fail to agree on the specifics of bank recapitalisation
There is growing evidence that the deal for Greece reached in July is unravelling. On Sunday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung that euro governments may have come up short on the scale of Greek debt writedowns when they reached the agreement in July.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 10 October 2011
Fitch pulls the rug from payrolls rally; Merkel-Sarkozy delivers little, but tone sees market retain optimism: A better than expected September US payrolls report took risk up and the dollar further down Friday, EURUSD making a new weekly high above 1.3500, only for the move to be more than reversed by Fitch’s ratings actions against […]
European FX Daily – Week Ahead in FX
– KRW and EUR lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities mixed – Germany and France pledge plans to stabilize Europe by end-October – EFSF progress in focus – US retail sales growth expected to accelerate – MAS likely to ease SGD appreciation, BoK and BI to remain on hold
US September Employment: Avoiding a recession?
September nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000, compared to a consensus estimate of +60,000. Both July and August payrolls were revised higher: the combined net revision was +99,000. The September unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%. These results will help allay near-term fears that the US economy is entering a recession.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Investors’ focus to remain on Eurozone sovereign and banking issues this week as only second-tier macro indicators are expected. Interest rate strategy 1. The 10Y Bund trades at upper end of one-month yield range. Further upside traction limited unless positive news picks up 2. ECB announces bond purchases volume
HSBC MacroBullets – Friday
TOP UK business daily City AM says UK banks set for an up to three-notch downgrade by Moody’s. The downgrade, expected as early as today, will impact 14 banks and building societies, the paper says. City AM said Moody’s refused to confirm the move. {http://bit.ly/nstonV}
David Bloom on NFP
Payrolls…If your feeling scared don’t read this What do you do if payrolls is much weaker. I am concerned for three reasons. 1stly, we look at the challenger data, which has a strong relationship with payrolls. It is most likely exaggerating (payrolls will not fall 500K) but does indicate downside risk.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Mixed – August IP falls 0.4% (p2) TK: Negative – CBT Survey of Expectations shows inflation expectations rise to 7.5% from 7.3% for YE2011 (p2)
European FX Daily – US non-farm payrolls today
– The INR and AUD lead modest rally vs USD, Asian equities up 0.5-3.0% – German industrial output likely to fall in August – A weak US non-farm payroll is likely to renew growth concerns
UK MPC expands QE by £75bn
The Monetary Policy Committee today announced a £75bn expansion of its asset purchase programme. Although this was counter to the consensus (and our own) forecast of unchanged policy this month, the surprise was more in relation to timing as a move to expand QE within the next few months was widely expected (we had expected […]
European FX Daily – Now for the ECB and BOE
– ECB and BoE meetings in focus – We recommended going long SGD ahead of next week’s MAS meeting What to watch for today EUR: Risk of ECB disappointment. Our economists argue the ECB is unlikely to cut its policy rate today, particularly after surprisingly high inflation in September released last week.