Forex News
A solid, but not spectacular, US employment report in October
The October employment report had a fairly positive tone. Despite an increase in headline payrolls of only 80k and private payroll growth of 104k, net revisions to the previous months of data amounted to 102k and the third consecutive month of strong household employment led to a decline in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – CNB keeps monetary policy unchanged, forecasts lower GDP growth (p2) PL: Positive – MinFin says it financed 101% of 2011 financing needs in Jan-Oct (p2) RO: Positive – MinFin sells RON 0.5bn 2Y GBs: avg yield at 7.23%, bid-to-cover at 3.7 9 (p2) / Negative – banking system returns to losses […]
Australia: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) – Growth forecasts appear optimistic if commodity prices continue their decline
Background: Given the change in policy direction delivered on Tuesday, today’s SoMP from the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to attract a greater than normal level of attention.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – FX reserves up 1% mom in October (p2) CZ: Negative – Govt sells CZK 2.62bn CZGB 5.7/24: bid/cover at 1.05, avg yield hits 3.51%, (p2) RO: Mixed – NBR cuts policy rate by 25bp to 6% / Sept PPI increases 0.9% mom (p2)
Russia flows and eod
If yesterday move looked like a correction then today’s one is a proper classic sell-off. RUB lost 25kop ag the basket straight from the open to get to 35.80, and then gave up 25kop more to reach 36.05 highs when world was going under after Greek referendum news.
The bears are back in town
Mid-day update is attached. Until BTP yields stabilize (6.2% for 10s now despite ECB being in, and next auction isn’t until November 14!) the bears have the upper hand.
Russia: the CBR increased capital outflow forecast to USD70bn for 2011
Today, the CBR drastically hiked its forecast on capital outflow from USD36bn ( the Economy Ministry sees it at USD50bn) to USD70bn in 2011. This is more realistic view, taking into account that net capital outflow reached USD49.6bn in Jan-Sep.
Asia Flash: China PMI will rebound in November 2011
We are not worried about today’s weaker than anticipated China October 2011 PMI. We expect a rebound in November to around 51-52 as an initial estimate. Our leading indicator for growth is pointing towards an acceleration and worse case scenario of stability.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – Ruling CEDB party consolidates power after second round of presidential and municipal elections / Parliament approves a conservative draft budget for 2012 (p2) CZ: Negative – MinFin revises its 2012 GDP forecast down to 1.0% (p2) ES: Neutral – Sept retail trade grows at 4.0% yoy / Sept IP growth slows […]
No Rest For The Wicked
An almost audible sigh of relief from the Eurozone as Japan distracted markets by unilaterally intervening for a four-figure surge in USDJPY.
Technical Analysis: Technical Focus – Industrial metals weekly
Copper – last week caught on the wrong footing Nickel – ready to exit the next bear flag Alu – correction is over and done!