Forex News
European FX Daily – Focus on payrolls
– FX markets in a range, Asian equities mixed – US employment likely robust, but limited impact on risk sentiment – Bank of Mexico likely to keep policy rate unchanged at 4.5%
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Solid French and Spanish bond auctions as well as the strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI failed to uphold Optimism 2. Today focuses will be on Merkel’s speech (see below) and the US non-farm payrolls.
China: Easing cycle officially starts
PBoC surprised markets and us by announcing a 50bp reserve ratio cut, effective from 5 December. Today’s reserve ratio cut marks the official start of China’s monetary easing, in response to the noticeable slowdown of both the latest inflation and growth data.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Neutral – NBH MPC hikes rates by 50bp in line with consensus (p1) BG: Negative – Economic sentiment down by 1.7 points in Nov (p2) LT: Positive – Final 3Q GDP revised up to 6.7% (p2)
Previewing today’s Eurogroup and tomorrow’s ECOFIN meetings
Summary The regular monthly meetings of the Eurogroup (starting 16.00 today) and ECOFIN (tomorrow from 08.00 GMT) come at a time when Germany is exerting a strong push to achieve a regime of much tougher fiscal discipline, decisions on Greece, discussion of the new government plans for Italy,
MoF monthly intervention amount release
MoF monthly intervention amount release is due at 1900JST today, not 1700JST. This statistics shows only the total amount SETTLED during November (28 Oct to 28 Nov), thus it includes Oct 31 intervention.
TRY: CBRT shows its hand
Turkish central bank has taken new steps to improve its communication with the markets. On Friday, the CBRT said that it would indicate in advance the amount of funding it intends to provide via the one-week repo auction.
Euro zone finance ministers are to agree on Tuesday
Reuters – Euro zone finance ministers are to agree on Tuesday the details of bolstering their bailout fund to help prevent contagion in bond markets, under pressure from the United States and ratings agencies to staunch a two-year-old debt crisis.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. The OECD called for urgent action to boost the ailing global economy in its latest Economic Outlook. 2. Eurogroup and EcoFin meetings starting today for two days should advance on several topics, including the EFSF, before the European summit on 9 Dec.
EMEA FX under renewed selling pressure
HUF: Moody’s unexpected downgrade hurts our long HUF trade PLN: NBP will intensify its interventions TRY: The CBRT has to show it stands behind the lira CZK: The CZK is not a safe haven. EUR-CZK to break above 26.00
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. ‘Risk-off’ mode dominated on a poor German bund auction and weak global economic data 2. German IFO index to continue its downward trend in November.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – 3 ways to fight FX depreciation
News BG: Neutral – Gross external debt down 0.1% mom in September (p2) LV: Positive – 3Q Unemployment decreases to 14.4% (p2) TK: Neutral – MPC keeps the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) at 5.75% (p2)