Forex Market
FX G10/EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Recent range continues 1.22-1.23 while eur x’s, especially against aud and nzd, continue to trade lower – While 1.2150/60 remains key support downside and we keep bouncing from around 1.22
FX Focus: NZD and commodity prices – milking it
§ We expect higher New Zealand commodity prices and robust demand growth in key trading partners, Australia and China, to support demand for NZD/USD in the near term.
Technical Analysis
Commodity FXers (AUD, NZD & CAD) are standout winners together with SEK and a little surprisingly also JPY… The latter has violated a 78.61 “B-wave low” which suggests extension to/below 77.65
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Recovery in Daily Studies. The pair holds atop the 5-day moving average at $1.2275, amid a recovery in the daily stochastic study.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5648 after rate had recovered through the NY session from lows of $1.5582 to $1.5659. Rate continued to drift away from those recovery highs into early Asia, finding a base at $1.5645 before picking up fresh demand that lifted the rate back to retest the NY high.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2280 after recovering from session lows of $1.2217 to session highs of $1.22878. The upside correction was seen driven on a mix of Asian sovereign, leveraged and macro demand, the latter two seen covering shorts/profit taking.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Focus now on April monthly highs. Break to fresh 2-mth highs o/n saw the pair pause at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 2012 highs to 2012 lows.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Bernanke has something for everybody
EUR USD (1.2280) Yesterday’s Bernanke testimony seemed to have been sufficiently general for all Fed-watchers to read what they wanted into it.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2287, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2290 after recovering from its Fed Bernanke react lows of $1.2189 seen as he failed to give any hints toward further stimulus, leaving market to wait for the next FOMC meeting Aug 1 and Jackson Hole address for clues.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.98 and Y96.95, opened in Asia at Y79.09 and lifted on short covering to Y79.16 where the rate met decent supply and eased to settle in a tight Y78.94 – Y79.16 trading range.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Painful day as we close in ny where we opened in ldn yesterday – Dips below 1.22 still remain wanted currently so after 3 goes and 3 nasty bounces it suggests to me we have put in a decent base for now
Technical Analysis
EUR/SEK likely headed into a fresh yearly low… EUR/USD Yet another buyers’ response… EUR/GBP Time ripe for a bounce higher… USD/CAD Extending the correction lower…