Forex Market
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2280, off extended recovery highs of $1.2330, with rate driven from earlier session lows Thursday of $1.2118 on reaction to ECB Draghi comments that the ECB would do everything within its mandate to support the euro.
Asia today: EUR maintains o/n gains; Soft Japan CPI tests the BOJ
After last night’s explosive EUR rally, Asia saw a mild correction in subdued activity but the single currency appeared to find support on the dips, at least in the near-term.
FX Monthly: Who’s afraid of the big, bad cliff?
We expect USD strength to persist into year-end, aided by relative economic outperformance and the sbsence of QE3. Our base case of a compromise on the impending fiscal cliff is consistent with limited Fed easing.
FX Special : US election, USD infection
The US fiscal and debt problems have been overshadowed by Europe. However, we expect the focus to shift onto US government finances and political discord as the election nears.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5485, stg0.7842, GBP closed in NY at $1.5496, off recovery highs of $1.5518 after rate had been knocked to intraday lows of $1.5459 following the release of poor 2Q GDP data.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.17 and Y94.93, USD/JPY opened around Y78.15 in Asia amid light flow, before a wave of heavy selling into the Tokyo fix pressed to Y78.05.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2142, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2155 after settling between $1.2145/60 following the rate’s short squeeze recovery through the day, extending its recent recovery off lows of $1.2042 to $1.21705.
FX Trends daily (FOCUS : AUD/CAD)
AUD/CAD After a consolidation in the recent sessions, the cross held above a support at 1,0414 (support line linkink May & July 2012 low pivots). This support now stands at 1,0427 and above this level, a return to the recent high at 1,0519 is exopected.
Interesting USDCAD set-up
An interesting trade setup in USDCAD, which it appears must make a directional soon as it trades close to the 200-day moving average.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB watchers have policy reversals in their sights
EUR USD (1.2135) The euro started to rise yesterday after reports suggested the ECB’s Nowotny was in favour of giving the ESM a banking license. These reports need to be treated with some caution, however.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – Well yesterday turned early on 1 headline regarding the ESM banking license and never looked back – Weak UK data, IFO all mattered not in the face of cutting from lev , spec and ctas –
Technical Analysis
A second possibly bullish EURUSD candle in three days, is this the first step towards a (correctional) recovery? Well, extension through 1.2224 would open up for at least 1.2325\34 before down again.