Forex Market

CFTC: Net dollar long at six month low; AUD receives another lift

Speculative investors in the eight IMM currency futures tracked in this report continued to scale back their dollar long positions for a third week.

Dbdaily: European Edition

HEADLINES… * Markets: Equities little changed in Europe/US, bond yields decline in US/DEU, rise in ESP/ITA, not too much change in FX. Modest risk-off tone early Monday.

European FX Daily

Currencies and equities mixed * Japan Q2 GDP weaker than expected * Focus on US survey data for August

* Politicians could slow pace of EUR recovery Multi month we like EUR lower on the crosses too (EURAUD,EURGBP, EURJPY) given declining yield advantage but believe that on a 4-6 week view, the EUR could be prone to upside risks.

Technical Analysis

More €uro weakness, JPY strength lurking… EUR/USD Mid body support still valid… USD/JPY Getting ready to decline… EUR/SEK More support coming up… NOK/SEK Time to look for fresh bids… EUR/NOK About to end the congestion.

FX Market Technical Research

EUR/USD: Tests 21-Day Moving Average. The pair tested Fibonacci level at $1.2445 before pulling back. The daily stochastic study now threatens turning lower from close to overbought territory, while 10-day momentum is flirting with the zero line.

GBP/USD Analysis

Closed in NY Friday at $1.5690 after spiking back from a low of $1.5570 to $1.5701. Rate consolidated this correction with trade through Asia contained within a relatively tight $1.5562/84 range, opening Europe around $1.5572.

EUR/USD Analysis

Closed in NY Friday at $1.2289 after seeing a late corrective spike that took rate from $1.2242 to $1.2317. Rate opened into early Asia around $1.2283 and continued to drift to a low of $1.22615 before meeting strong US name buying which bounced rate back to $1.2290 with momentum taking it on to $1.2301.

Asia today: Japan reports marginal Q2 growth; No China rate cut

Weak risk appetite on Friday in the aftermath of China’s softer trade data led to the usual rumours/chatter of a weekend China rate cut late in the session. They came to nothing, so Asia kicked off the session with another weakish start.

Asian Currencies Technicals

AUD/USD: Cracks appearing in trend higher. Sharp dip Friday combined with overbought daily tech studies and failures ahead of the March 19 high could be indicating its time for a pullback for the AUD/USD. Back below the Aug 2 lows is needed to shift focus away from higher levels and back to retests of the […]

GBP Analysis

Opened early Europe at $1.5625, stg0.7867, GBP closed in NY at $1.5638 after rate recovered off a retest on intraday lows of $1.5606, having seen highs earlier in the day at $1.56878 (Asia, Europe $1.5685).

JPY Analysis

Opened in early Europe at Y78.55 and Y96.52, asian trade opened flat, before sharp yen demand ahead of the Tokyo fix weighed to Y78.50. Support met in the dip and aided by some decent cross demand recovered to Y78.60 where rate settled in a tight range.