Forex Market
FX Daily Strategist: US
* Weaker USD trend to remain intact The recent rise in US treasuries failed to be interrupted by Wednesday’s weak US CPI data and Empire Manufacturing survey. The latest data from the US suggests that action from the Fed in September remains likely despite better-thanexpected July payrolls, retails sales data and industrial production data.
FX Daily Crosses
Today’s highlights: * EURGBP: The risks are still seen lower to .7790 then .7755/40 ahead of the .7694 2008 low.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5661, stg0.7840, closed in NY at $1.5682 after rate had recovered off intraday lows at $1.5662 to $1.5702.
AUDUSD in no-man’s land, but not for long.
AUDUSD is in no man’s land between 1.0450 and 1.0500. It won’t take much of a move from here to either confirm or deny both the bearish and bullish arguments.
EUR Analysis
Opened in early Europe at $1.2278, closed in NY at $1.2288, after recovering off lows at $1.2264. Following an initial dip to $1.2282 into early Asia, the rate pushed higher as early Tokyo bought euro-yen, the rate able to break above the NY high at $1.2294 and extend recovery to $1.2306.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.31 and Y97.41, closed in NY at Y78.98 having recovered off pullback lows of Y78.59 following a flurry of soft US data.
European FX Daily
* We expect modest UK retail sales growth * Turkey likely to narrow its interest rate bands * Consensus expectation is for a rebound in the Philly Fed * We recommend short EURMXN and long EURTRY positions
Technical Analysis
Firmer $, correcting Scandies, bond yields on the rise… EUR/USD Breaking down from the flag!?… USD/NOK Bouncing off the 2009 top line… EUR/SEK At least an 8.31 bounce… USD/SEK Trying to hammer out a base…
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Focus on Fibonacci Level, 21-DMA. The daily stochastic study forms a bear-cross, while 10-day momentum is flirting with the zero line, keeping bear’s attention on the 21-DMA, which rises to $1.2272 and meets a support line at $1.2273.
USD/JPY Analysis
Closed in NY at Y78.98 having recovered off pullback lows of Y78.59 following a flurry of soft US data. The pair triggered stops in early Asia and lifted to Y79.15 on Japanese name demand ahead of the Tokyo fix.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5682 after rate had recovered off intraday lows at $1.5662 to $1.5702. Rate took direction from EUR/USD in Asia, initially easing to $1.5674 before recovering back to $1.5690 as early Tokyo demand for EUR/JPY demand influenced.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2288, after recovering off lows at $1.2264. Following an initial dip to $1.2282 into early Asia the rate pushed higher as early Tokyo bought EUR/JPY, the rate able to break above the NY high at $1.2294 and extend recovery to $1.2306.