Forex Market
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The relief was short-lived
EUR/USD (1.4380) The Greece bailout deal seemed to have bought some time if not exactly solvency. We were surprised to see Fitch, the ratings agency, was the first to downgrade Greek sovereign paper, calling the terms of the new agreement a ‘restricted’ default, and Moody’s followed suit with a downgrade this morning.
Deadlock and disappointment (Kit mainly)
The press response to Europe’s latest Greek bailout was pretty negative, maybe in part because the euro failed to gain any traction on Friday. The upshot is that we start the week with the broad EUR/USD 1.40-1.45 range holding, the mood slightly negative and not a lot of newsflow to help us along.
Overnight FX Wrap, Orderbook & Flow, USD/Asia, Greece downgrade
1) Overnight Wrap With no new debt ceiling deal in place in the US, the markets opened weak in Asia with equity futures trading down 1%. Gold and CHF were the large gainers as investors fled for safety. Gold made new highs taking out stops and jumping to 1624.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Relief at last
EUR-USD (1.4390) The euro surged higher yesterday on the news that a new bailout deal will allow Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to borrow at rates between 3.5 and 4 percent and to extend their loan payments out to 30 years.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – Poland, Serbia, Turkey
News CZ: Positive – Finance Ministry raised its outlook for 2011 GDP growth to 2.5% (p2) PL: Positive – Govt successfully sells new 10Y benchmark POLGB (p2) TK: Dovish – CBT keeps policy, RRR unchanged, statement dovish (p2)
EU leaders delivered better then expected agreement
– Majors in tight ranges, Asia currencies up 0.4-1.7% – EU leaders delivered a better than expected agreement – A weak German Ifo may weigh on EURUSD recovery – Canadian CPI inflation to restrain BoC tightening expectations
Macrobullets – Thursday July 21
TOP: Merkel and French President Sarkozy agreed on a joint position for a second fiscal aid package for Greece, the German government confirmed Thursday {http://on.ft.com/nobRqf} Germany and France will propose a multi-billion euro bank levy at this morning’s summit in Brussels to guarantee private sector involvement in a second Greek rescue package, a move the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 21 July 2011
All eyes will be fixed on the EU Summit meeting Expectations of a resolution on Greece are high, and so any disappointment will weigh on sentiment China HSBC PMI will be released this morning
Macrobullets – Wednesday – July 20
TOP US: An ambitious new plan, unveiled by a group of senators known as the “Gang of Six” (3 Republican and 3 Democrat senators), offers a ray of hope in an increasingly grim standoff that has threatened the US’ top-notch credit rating. It would cut the deficit by $3.75tn over a decade. {http://bit.ly/pboITt} Moody’s has […]
Cascade effects of a US sovereign rating change
Financial markets were jolted briefly today when Moody’s Investors Service announced that it was putting the Aaa credit rating of five states on review. Though some market participants were taken off guard, Moody’s had already issued a comment back in June warning that any change to the US sovereign rating would necessarily have negative implications […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 20 July 2011
President Obama throws his support behind “Gang of Six” plan, providing comfort to the markets BoC significantly changes its tone, turning hawkish Expectations of dovish BoE minutes should pull GBP lower
European FX Daily – Asian equities rallied but FX traded sideways
– Majors in tight ranges, Asian equities up 0.4-1.4% – BoE minutes likely to be dovish and weigh on GBP What to watch for today GBP: Unchanged voting pattern but a more dovish message. We expect the minutes of the BoE’s July meeting to show an unchanged voting pattern, with Dale and Weale voting for […]