Forex Market
Australia: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy: Aug 2011
Today the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP). The release provides an update on the RBA’s thoughts on the Australian economic outlook, including forecasts out to Dec-2013. The previous statement was released on 5 May.
HSBC MacroBullets – 05/08/11
TOP Japanese FinMin Noda today repeated that he was closely watching yen moves, signalling Tokyo’s readiness to continue with its yen-selling intervention that media said reached a record 4 trillion yen ($50.6 billion). However Noda also said he wanted to spend more time determining the effect of Tokyo’s action, a comment which briefly pushed up […]
ECB – bond buying, money market liquidity
ECB – Hint at bond buying and announcement of more money market liquidity (Astrid Schilo, Senior European Economist) – Bond buying programme is ongoing – Increased money market liquidity via new 6 mth tender, roll-over of 3 mth full allotment – ECB rates on hold at 1.5%, unchanged key expressions, more emphasis on growth uncertainty
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 04 August 2011
• Key for EUR will be whether the ECB considers restarting SMP • Japan intervenes to weaken JPY, BOJ eases policy • A sustained USDJPY rally is unlikely given current market nervousness
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News HU: Negative – Alliance of Hungarian Local Government Head announces a proposed delay of principal repayments on CHF loans issued by local governments to domestic instititions, largely banks (p2) RO: Neutral – NBR leaves policy rate unchanged at 6.25% / Negative – June retail sales drop 1.2% mom (p2) TK: Mixed – July CPI […]
Repeated action will be needed
The MoF surprised the market by stepping in to sell JPY in the Tokyo morning session today, pushing up USD/JPY from around 77.30 to 79 yen so far. Finance Minister Noda confirmed the government’s action.
HUF WATCHERS
Hungary: Local governments seek extension on principal repayment of CHF debt Hungarian local authorities asked the Prime Minister to intermediate a deal with the banks for a one-year delay in principal repayments of Swiss Franc debt worth HUF600bn (cUSD3.2bn).
Global Macro Daily (London Open) – 04 August 2011
– The ECB is meeting on Thursday, one month after having raised the refi rate by 25bp (to 1.50%). We do not expect much to come out of the press conference, and neither does the market. We look at the options the ECB has in terms of bond buying (see Focus on next page).
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 03 August 2011
Price action characterised by traditional risk-off on global growth fears. Top Japanese officials meet but rhetoric does not signal any urgency for JPY intervention. US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance.
European FX Daily – Focus on services PMIs and ADP
– Asian equities down 1-2% weakening Asian FX, but G10 less so – China’s July services PMI rose in line with its seasonal factor – UK, Europe and US services PMIs expected to be weak – ADP expected at 100k
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 03 Aug 2011
US ends budget stalemate but little euphoria results as concerns remain fixed on global growth EUR likely to remain under pressure if GIIPS spreads fail to re-compress US and UK services PMI important for first signs of Q3 performance