Forex Market
Swiss Timing – today or over the week-end? + Asia x asset
Sarkozy/Merkel came up with little new. SNB could disappoint today but not this week end. The move by the biggest Swiss retailer to force a pass-through of the high CHF seals its fate + Cross Asset piece on Asia. We have all known for a long time that it is very hard to teach an […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Upbeat sentiment dissipated: The Sarkozy-Merkel meeting generally fell short of market expectations. 2. Eurozone July HICP inflation to be confirmed at 2.5% YoY on lower core inflation. 3. BoE minutes under scrutiny following the uptick in July CPI inflation. We expect unanimity votes in favour of the rates status quo. 4. US […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: US consumers sense another recession
EUR/USD (1.4290) World Bank chief Robert Zoellick warned on Saturday that the world is entering a new economic ‘danger zone’, with confidence in leadership slipping. Mr Zoellick said we are in the early moments of a new and different economic storm, with the eurozone’s sovereign debt problems being more troubling than the medium and long-term […]
E-bonds back on agenda, Italian austerity
Discussing the longer-term solution to the Eurozone crisis Both short- and long-term solutions to the crisis will provide focal points for the market over the next 24 hours. Today the ECB will release last week’s settled purchases (15:30CET) of bonds via the SMP (Securities Market Program), which began 8 August, with expectations centred on EUR15bn […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Asia – 15 August 2011
CHF and JPY to stay in the spotlight, both at risk of renewed strength. EURUSD more prone to fall than rally barring sharp improvement in global risk appetite. We favour short EURJPY and short EURAUD here.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Short-sale ban can’t change what is done
EUR/USD (1.4195) Eurozone members France, Belgium, Italy, and Spain have imposed a 15-day ban on the short-sale of financial stocks, effective this morning. The ‘French resistance’ was tested, according to that country’s chief securities regulator, and ‘this is our response’. However other Union members were not persuaded to go along, and we think for good […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – August 12
News CZ: Positive – June C/A posts a CZK 9.3bn deficit, 86% financed with FDI (p2) HU: Positive – July CPI slows down to 3.1% yoy (-0.3% mom) (p2) PL: Negative – June C/A deficit comes in higher than market expectations at EUR 1,596mn (p2)
HK FX Wrap, Orderbook & Flows, USD/Asia run and Key Levels
1) Overnight Wrap A quieter session overnight with little news of note and most of the majors stuck in 50 pts range. China Yuan fixed at historical high again, but there wasn’t any impact to risk pairs given S&P trading below par most of the time. The worst has been down 1% for the futures, […]
Market Mover: 11 August 2011
The US downgrade has been a trigger for a sharp rise in risk aversion, pushing yields to record lows. The relief in markets following the FOMC statement that rates were to be kept exceptionally low until at least mid-2013 failed to last. Concerns over a deep economic slowdown have intensified – the global economy is […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – Govt auctions CZK 7.3bn 6Y CZGB (p2) RO: Positive – July inflation falls to 4.85% (p2) Today’s Events CZ: June C/A; ES: 2Q GDP (Preliminary), June C/A; HU: July CPI; LV: June C/A; PL: June C/A; SRB: Policy rate announcement, RSD 4bn 3M tbill auction; RU: 2Q GDP (Preliminary); TK: June […]
Overnight Wrap, OB & Flow, USDAsia (note CNY) and Key Open Levels
1) Overnight Wrap Another wild session, liquidity non existent at times as we gap around in remarkable fashion. New York had closed on its lows after the bloodbath in equity markets overnight. Asia immediately pushes risk higher as stale shorts are squeezed, further propelled by a very low CNY fixing.
Asia Flash: China – September rebound in economic activity intact
We maintain our core view that economic activity in China will rebound latest by September and stabilize in August. This is a very out of consensus view in light of recent market and global macro data turbulence. This view is based on our proprietary model of leading indicators for China. For details, please refer to […]