Forex Market
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 28 September 2011
Risk rally built on shaky grounds; we remain cautious Yesterday’s rally is perhaps best characterised as a combination of positioning and a small dose of glass-half-full optimism. Certainly there was some good news: the passage of the Greek property tax; and of the EFSF reform bills by Austria and Slovenia; Finland is expected to follow […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Reality tames euro optimism
EUR/USD (1.3555) An imaginative and hopeful market anticipating an imminent political solution to the eurozone debt crisis pushed the euro to a one-week high yesterday. But over the course of the day the brief optimism over the idea of the enlarged EFSF and the two-trillion euro figure disappeared as European politicians like German finance minister, […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – GED down 0.4% mom in July, MinFin sells EUR 35mn of 5Y bonds (p2) KZ: Mixed – M3 shrinks 2.3% mom in August (-2.1% momsa) (p2)
UniCredit EEMEA Daily – take profit on half of our RUB payer
News RO: Neg – MinFin rejects all bids at a RON400mn auction of 6M T-Bills (p2) RU: Negative – FinMin Kudrin resigns amid clash with Medvedev (p1) TK: Positive – September real sector confidence index records a strong 2.4% mom increase (p2)
HSBC FI – EFSF discussion continues, Italian
ECB comments on increasing size of EFSF A range of numbers have been mentioned on the newswires, with some suggesting an increase to EUR2-3tn but without details of what this involves it is difficult to forecast the impact. It is not clear how the EFSF would be leveraged and, furthermore, whether the figures reflect the […]
European FX Daily – Risk sentiment stabilised on more constructive news from Europe
– Asian FX and equities rally, AUD outperforming amongst G10 – Slovenia likely to ratify EFSF amendments – US Consumer confidence and Richmond Fed in focus
HSBC: Currencies: Currency Weekly: USD – the only port in this storm
Last week’s gloomy outlook for global growth has caused an exodus from risk assets such as equities and commodities. The main beneficiary of this repositioning has been the USD. This flight to the USD has taken place despite the fact that there has been no improvement in the structural position in the US.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. Risk appetite stabilised somewhat amid speculation about policy measures to contain the eurozone crisis 2. ECB speakers continue to hint at policy accommodation in October, at least on the liquidity front, while the case for a rate cut has strengthened. 3. Eurozone M3 annual growth to remain weak in August.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 26 Sept 2011
Sentiment extremely mixed in Europe : Risk sentiment has been erratic with a risk-off mood in equity markets in Asia given way to a risk-on tone in Europe. While there was little concrete from the weekend G20/IMF meetings, equities are rallying (led by the financials) in response to a UK Telegraph report of a comprehensive […]
RUB WATCHERS
Summary Vladimir Putin will run for the presidency in 2012, Unified Russia to win parliamentary elections and Dmitry Medvedev to become a prime-minister – these are the key results of the ruling Unified Russia party Congress on Saturday.
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 26 September 2011
Friday optimism once again gives way to disappointment FX markets showed a little more stability on Friday, but once again this has proven temporary. Reports that EU officials were contemplating bringing forward the creation of the ESM (successor to the EFSF) to 2012, and that it would have capital of EUR500bn, helped drive optimism that […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro traders seem to favour the radical plan
EUR/USD (1.3405) Eurozone leaders were in the unusual situation of not having to dwell on the problems of other nations at the annual IMF meeting in Washington; they had to discuss their own.