Forex Market
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Neutral – CPI up 0.3% mom, eases to 3.1% yoy / MinFin sells BGN 65mn of 10?Y paper, vs. planned BGN 60mn, at 5.30% (p2) HU: Negative – Headline inflation accelerates to 4.3% yoy (p2) LV, LT: Neutral – Fitch revises rating outlook to Stable (p2) PL: Positive – Oct C/A deficit decreases […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Illusion of consensus
EUR/USD (1.3030) Four days after the conclusion of the latest summit, some EU leaders are beginning to raise doubts about what was actually agreed. At least, uncertainty around whether the debt and deficit rules were intended to apply only to eurozone countries or to the entire EU, has emerged.
EURUSD traded through key support level of 1.3050/45
– G10 currencies in tight ranges, EURUSD broke key support overnight – Asian currencies weaker vs the USD, equities mixed – FOMC kept policy unchanged – Italy to auction 5-year papers, euro area IP likely flat – Norges Bank to remain on hold with risk of 25bp cut – We recommend selling 1yr in 1yr […]
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. It increasingly looks as though it will be sour end to the year for markets, with hopes of a year end rally fading fast. 2. German Chancellor Merkel to address parliament today. 3. We expect the Norges Bank to remain on hold, but the market is looking for a rate cut.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – The Govt’s 2012 debt financing strategy assumes borrowing needs of CZK 243bn gross and CZK 107bn net / CNB vice governor Vladimir Tomsik said the weakening CZK is doing policy maker’s job (p2) KZ: Positive – Nov IndOut holds up well at 2.9%YoY (p2) LV: Positive – 3Q final GDP revised […]
EUR consolidates in Asia after slump, but still looks vulnerable
The Asian session saw EUR and AUD trade a tad heavy early on a headline that China would withhold aid until the EU meets certain conditions. But once it was ascertained that the comment came from an academic at Peking University and not a policy-maker the slide halted. Tight ranges ensued thereafter.
Last FOMC meeting before the doves arrive?
We crank up the activity today with several key monthly indicators, including US Retail Sales, followed by the last FOMC meeting of the year this evening, which will be the last such meeting for several of the hawks in the group.
HSBC Macrobullets – Tuesday
TOP China to withhold aid until EU meets certain conditions: Yao Yang (director of the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University) {http://xrl.us/bmkumz} Fitch commenting on the Euro crisis: Predicts a significant downturn in EU in the short term; there is a lack of a comprehensive solution; too early to judge on how effective […]
Asian session wrap, orderbook & USD/Asia run
1) Asian session wrap The Asian session began with risk firmly on the back foot as New York finished the day at the lows after a day of relentless pessimism. EURUSD managed to print marginally lower than NY had done at 1.3160 this morning in Asia but pivotal support in the pair towards 1.3145 safe […]
Asia Flash: China: outlook for exports improving
Our leading indicators and detailed imports data are suggesting that the momentum of China’s nominal exports should continue to improve over the next few months. We expect China exports to accelerate to 15-18% y/y over the next few months.
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News CZ: Neutral – 3Q C/A deficit posted negative CZK 42.2bn, FDI came in at CZK 5.3bn (p2) RO: Positive – MinFin sold 2Y T-Bonds worth RON 743mn vs. RON 700mn planned: bid/cover 2.7, avg. yield 7.15% / Mixed – Oct IP growth decelerated to 4% yoy (p2) LV: Positive – IMF released statement fowling […]
UniCredit EEMEA Daily
News BG: Mixed – Oct retail sales drop -2.6% yoy / Oct IP advances 2.4% yoy (p2) CZ: Negative – Investor bids in the auction for CZGB VAR/23 amounted to CZK 5.65bn, below the CZK 7bn volume indicated for sale / Oct IP growth slowed to 1.7% yoy (p2) PL: Neutral – MPC kept interest […]