Forex Market
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5919, having been pulled lower by the deeper EUR/USD fall, to a session low of $1.5905. Rate therefore closed above its key 200-dma level at $1.5902 (today $1.5899) and is seen keeping its recent underlying buoyant tone in place.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD’s key day reversal on Wednesday could mark the end of the recent bullish consolidation phase. Therefore expect to see further weakness in the days to come. The 1.3322 early February high is now being eyed.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3325, off pullback lows of $1.3315, seen after the rate was sold down in reaction to Fed Bernanke comments, or rather no reference to possible Q3. Rate marked lows in Asia at $1.3318 in opening trade before pushing higher, the move seen influenced by cross yen demand, which in turn was […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0725 after lows in NY of $1.0715 following Fed Bernanke’s testimony which diminished QE3 expectations and led a run in precious metal sales and stocks as well as the euro-complex.
Risk currencies find a base as China PMIs improve
The start of the new month and the focus shifts to the array of PMI data from across the globe. Yesterday, the Chicago PMI set the tone with a strong reading of 64.0 from 60.2 (61.0 expected) but Asia was not quite able to match this stellar reading.
USD/JPY Analysis
Dollar opened in Asia at Y81.15 this morning after a strong rally yesterday following Fed Bernanke’s testimony which dampened any hopes of QE3. The pair rallied strongly yesterday from near the Ichimoku tenkan line down with a low of Y80.25.
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5901, having pierced above its key 200-dma at $1.5903 (today $1.5902), though failed to close above. Rate dipped back to $1.5898 into early Asia before heading higher, the move triggering stops above $1.5910 before meeting resistance ahead of Feb 8 highs at $1.5929.
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3457 after rate had recovered off pullback lows of $1.3389 (lows seen on reaction to Ireland’s call for a referendum on the EU fiscal treaty), pushing to an intraday high of $1.34715 ahead of the close as risk outlook was boosted on the Dow close above 13000 (first time since […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y80.44 and Y108.45, Opened in Asia at Y80.46 and was led higher by EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY demand as risk appetite built following yesterday high closes on the DJIA and S&P. The pair battled up to highs of Y80.69 before encountering dollar month-end selling and slipping back to Y80.31.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: LTRO2 take-up figure will not reveal all
EUR USD (1.3480) A collection of surveys estimating the LTRO2 take-up amount averages out around €500 billion. The figures indicate an attempt by investors to understand an event with repercussions (while generally now confirmed to be positive – Italian and Spanish bond yields are lower) which are nevertheless unrecognisable immediately.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: The break out of Monday’s inside day in the EUR/USD should determine the trend for the next few days. Since the break has been to the upside, the 1.3550 December high is now being targeted.
Technical Analysis
All eyes on the LTRO results now… EURUSD could be a “buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact” experience… GBPUSD could extend the fresh yearly high scored, but there is more resistance above to consider… USDJPY under 80.00 would expose 79.55, but back over 80.80 would be renewed near-term bullish…