Forex Market
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at 1.3202, after recovering off session lows of $1.31334, the recovery continuing into Asia as demand for EUR/JPY influenced the rate to an extended high of $1.32134 before settling between $1.3190/1.3210 for the balance of an otherwise subdued session. Rate trades around $1.3195 in early European dealing.
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y82.58 having suffered a sharp fall from Y83.47 to Y82.33 yesterday as the dollar wilted under the strain of some heavy cross sales following weak PMI data from China and Europe. weak short positions were squeezed out this morning in Tokyo as fixing demand led a recovery from early lows of […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia this morning at $1.0389 having dropped to lows of $1.0336 in NY yesterday as AUD reacted the most to the risk-off sentiment generated from poor PMI data starting with China and compounded by similar weak readings from the EU states.
GBP Analysis
Cable closed in NY at $1.5863, off session lows of $1.5817, as well as above its 200-dma (Wednesday $1.5857, today $1.5856). The recovery continued into Asia, the rate pushing to a session high of $1.5885 before faltering then dropping back as markets reacted to the release of weaker than expected HSBC China PMI data, which […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3210, having been pressed to lows in this session of $1.3178 from earlier highs in Europe of $1.3286. Rate edged higher in early Asia, the move influenced by EUR/JPY demand, marking a high at $1.3246 before faltering.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: ECB, Fed are not eager to tighten too soon
EUR USD (1.3235) News that the ECB’s €40 billion crisis assetpurchase programme has just spent €9 billion for the purpose, comesamid discussions on the ECB’s exit strategy and evokes nervousreaction among some investors. However a close look at the recentstatements emanating from the ECB and the Fed suggests thatneither have expressed any readiness to tighten.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD rallied towards and again failed just ahead of the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), we look for this to provoke failure. The market will need to erode intraday support at 1.3140 to further alleviate upside pressure and initiate a slide back to the 55 day ma at 1.3112 en route to the recent low […]
FX Focus: AUD outlook – Two sides of the same coin
* We recently lowered our AUD/USD forecast path (Emerging Markets Quarterly: Repositioning, not playing defence, 20 March 2012) and now expect AUD/USD to trade in a 1.04-1.07 range over the next 12 months. This is consistent with our technical strategists’ expectation of AUD/USD remaining in a 1.01-1.10 range over the next 6-8 months.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Weaker US housing data sees USD stronger? FX market still struggling for direction FX markets on Wednesday continued to reflect a lack of conviction. Existing home sales disappointed, but despite the resulting rally in US Treasuries, USD finished stronger against most G10 currencies, gaining most against AUD – although, as would be expected given the […]
Technical Analysis
The euro rather resilient (so far) to bearish signals coming out of Spain (bank CDS’s took off yesterday, bearish key day reversal in IBEX), JPY – the stage is set for a comeback (EURJPY bearish key day reversal, USDJPY double top?, AUDJPY retreating, JPYSEK false downside break),
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5863, off session lows of $1.5817, as well as above its 200-dma which Wednesday came in at $1.5857 (today $1.5856). The recovery continued into Asia, the rate pushing to a session high of $1.5885 ($1.5883 61.8% $1.5924/1.5817) before faltering then dropping back as markets reacted to the release of weaker than […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3210, having been pressed to lows in this session of $1.3178 from earlier highs in Europe of $1.3286. Slow start in Asia before rate eventually edged higher, the move influenced by EUR/JPY demand, marking an early high at $1.3246 before faltering.