Forex Market
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · GBPUSD: Prod to a new Q1 recovery peak (through 1.5991) to open the door to the Q4 high at 1.6167 (interim hurdle 1.6090). · EURUSD: Digestion setback, but prior break above 1.3292/94 intact for a constructive bias to aim up to the 1.3487/3510 major resistance cluster.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD will shortly encounter the top of the 7 month channel at 1.3457. this together with the February high at 1.3487 should provoke failure. Initial support is 1.3291, then 1.3237 (near term uptrend) and we suspect will have to fall below this latter level to alleviate immediate upside pressure.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5957, off pullback lows of $1.5945 which were seen after rate had pulled back from extended highs of $1.6002. Rate marked lows at $1.5947 into early Asian trading before stepping its way higher through the session to an eventual high of $1.5964.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3312, just off its pullback low of $1.3311 after rate had been pressed back from earlier intraday highs of $1.33857. Rate picked up fresh demand interest into Asian dealing, the rate opening the main session around $1.3313 and edged higher, the move aided by another round of French name buying in […]
USD/JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia this morning at Y83.17 and edged up to highs of Y83.22 on the back of some early EUR/JPY demand from a French name. The move was quickly undone by strong supply from a major Japanese bank who also sold AUD/JPY forcing the USD/JPY back down to Y83.05.
RBA upbeat on stability of local banking system; AUD top-heavy
The RBA’s Financial Stability Overview painted a quite upbeat picture of the local banking system and, in a similar vein to member Debelle’s speech yesterday, offered assurance that the system was well-capitalized and well-positioned to meet the requirements of the Basel III accord.
AUD/USD Analysis
Opened in Asia at $1.0459 after trading down from $1.0558 to $1.0453 on some heavy leveraged and corporate supply particularly through the EUR, JPY and Canada crosses. There has been little change in tone this morning with further EUR/AUD demand weighing on the AUD and steady year-end yen demand pressing AUD/JPY lower.
GBP Analysis
GBP closed in NY at $1.5966, off NY rally highs of $1.5974 and seen after markets reacted to dovish comments from Fed’s Bernanke. Rate touched an early high in Asia of $1.5972, as early direction was dictated by strong GBP/JPY demand, but move held off the NY high as well as the reported option barrier […]
EUR Analysis
EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3360, off traded highs at $1.3368 and seen after markets reacted to Fed Bernanke’s dovish comments. Rate basically flatlined through Asia with trade contained within a tight range of $1.3343/66.
JPY Analysis
JPY opened in early Europe at Y82.80 and Y110.55 after a brief low of Y82.80 headed higher on investor demand, taking out CTA stops at Y83.00 to highs of Y83.04. Exporter and fixing supply then weighed with the USD easing back to Y82.80.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: US Dollar dip helps prop up commodity currencies
Commodity prices are benefiting from the near-term dip in the US dollar. Brent crude has broken bullishly from its contracting range and copper looks set to follow suit, with a similar bullish set-up confirmed on a break above 8660. On the back of this, commodity currencies are also turning positive within range.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: · EURUSD: Clear break above 1.3292/94 negates any defensive bias for a more constructive tone, with risk to the 1.3487/3510 major resistance · GBPUSD: Eyes the Q1 recovery peak at 1.5991, through which opens the door to the Q4 (near 7-month) high, 1.6167 (interim hurdle 1.6090)