Forex Market
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD is trading modestly lower Friday after the Reserve Bank of Australia disappointed traders trading on the short side by not expressly stating an intention to ease policy again, although a sharply lowered inflation forecast meant that there was still plenty of scope for stimulus.
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY again tied to a tight range in Asian trade Friday, as Japanese markets remain closed for the “Golden Week” holidays. The pair was also quiet ahead of the US jobs report, expected at 1230GMT.
RBA lowers growth/inflation forecasts but AUD doesn’t react
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its growth and inflation forecasts in its Monetary Policy statement Friday but the Aussie dollar’s reaction was muted. Indeed, the content of the RBA’s quarterly Monetary Policy Statement was broadly similar to the post-meeting statement.
FX Weekly: EUR Still Set to Slide
Summary G10 Themes: Sell EURJPY: An Outlier Among EUR Crosses EUR crosses face downside risks from structural factors and potential ECB easing expectations. EURJPY, in particular, looks vulnerable, having been propped up by JPY short positioning ahead of the end-April BoJ meeting. We are selling spot, positioning for a 3% move lower. We also like […]
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.6186 stg0.8122, GBP closed in NY at $1.6198, after recovering off session lows of $1.6161. Rate marked Asian highs into opening trade at $1.6199 before tracking EUR/USD lower, though move was seen more of a drift in thin conditions as Japan closed Thursday and Friday to complete Golden Week holidays.
JPY Analysis
Opened in Asia at Y80.12 and grinded higher to Y80.20 in light volumes, hampered by a Tokyo holiday, as Japan continued to enjoy Golden Week. Dollar ran into offers from exporters and settled in a tight 10 pip range for the remainder of the session.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: * EURUSD: Plunge from trend barriers (1.3275/3300) through trend/chart supports (1.3200/1.3157) aims for 1.3058. * NZDUSD: Break of chart/200-DMA support, to prod key .8059/50 foundations and signal a bigger top and more bearish outlook into Q2 towards .7920 and .7790 retrace targets.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.3146, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3158, after rate had recovered from session lows of $1.3122 to $1.3168. Rate touched an early overnight high at $1.31605 before continuing its corrective pullback, the rate easing to an eventual low of $1.3136 before settling above $1.3140 into the European open.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: PMI data should not have been a surprise
EUR USD (1.3145) The euro reacted to a worse-than-expected Italian manufacturing PMI (43.8) number yesterday and plunged. While the number was certainly poor, what triggered the sharp reaction in the euro was that it was perceived as a surprise.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.6198, after recovering off session lows of $1.6161. Rate marked Asian highs into opening trade at $1.6199 before tracking EUR/USD lower, though move was seen more of a drift off in thin trade conditions as Japan closed Thursday and Friday to complete Golden Week holidays.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3158 after rate had recovered back from session lows of $1.3122 to $1.3168. Rate touched an early overnight high at $1.31605 before continuing its corrective pullback, the rate easing to an eventual low of $1.3136 before settling back above $1.3140 into the European open.
Technical Analysis
€ bearish prints, NZD under pressure, oil lower… EUR/USD Bearish response… EUR/JPY Heading for a 104.20/60 test… NZD/USD Exiting the bear flag… EUR/SEK And back at support… USD/SEK Buyers meeting offers… EUR/NOK Setback… NZD/NOK Make or break?