Forex Market
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.6194, just off recovery highs of $1.6197, after rate had corrected off Asian lows of $1.6115. Rate extended recovery highs to $1.6199 in early Asian dealing, but reported offers into $1.6200 countered.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.3052 after rate had extended its recovery off earlier, Eurozone weekend election result inspired, Asian lows of $1.29552 to $1.3066 in a holiday thinned market (UK out, return this morning).
Technical Analysis
Markets could extend yesterday’s corrections some… EUR/USD Resistance at 1.3073\80-1.3120… USD/JPY “Doji” candle & Double-bottom… AUD/USD Retesting resistance then lower… EUR/SEK Non.-directional inside 8.86\93… USD/SEK Support likely @ ~6.79/77… EUR/NOK Still looking for an upper break… NOK/SEK “Sold” higher.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD remains in negative territory Tuesday holding above four month lows, after the pair plummeted to around $1.0110 on Monday, its weakest level seen on the year so far. The pair managed to rally back to $1.0221 late yesterday amid an improved tone in equity markets, although traders still see the upside constrained by the […]
Oz trade balance deteriorates, wiping the smile off the AUD
No doubt most Asian short EUR positions were wiped out yesterday as the single currency staged a dramatic comeback from its early post-election sell-off. There were no real drivers for the rebound though reports of reserve diversification by central banks did the rounds while encouraging words for Greece from EU members may also have helped.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.6185 stg0.8124, GBP Closed in NY at $1.6158, the rate marked down to $1.6122 into the Asian open in line with EUR/USD as the European single currency was pressured lower following the anti austerity election results in France and Greece.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe around Y79.80 and Y103.56 Return of Japanese markets from their Golden Week holidays saw traders attracted into yen as market reacted to the Eurozone election results over the weekend causing risk off sales in EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.
Speculative Positions
Recent reversals in USD/CAD and GBP/USD confirmed by positioning data SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite is falling. RAI is working its way through its support area in a continuation pattern of the previous sharp fall. Summary of the speculative accounts in the Commitment of Traders report for the period 25 April […]
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2977, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.3083, the rate marked lower into Asia’s open to $1.3065 as markets reacted to weekend election results in France and Germany, but more especially in Greece, as results showed the governing coalition had failed to win a majority, with anti austerity parties making significant gains.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro weighs the elections
EUR USD (1.2975) The importance of the US non-farm payrolls for the EUR/USD was short-lived as Europe delivered the much-awaited electoral results. Although in power on the back of an anti-austerity wave, the post-election tone of the new socialist president in France is likely to be more compromising than suggested on the campaign.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.6158, the rate marked down to $1.6122 into the Asian open in line with EUR/USD as the European single currency was pressured lower following the anti austerity election results in France and Greece.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD aggressively and has reached the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year so far. While this may hold the initial test, the risk will remain on the downside and a move below 1.2954 is expected to trigger another leg on the downside to the 1.2624 January low.