Forex Market
Speculative Positions
Largest net short speculative EUR position ever! SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) Risk appetite continued to fall and is now slightly lower than at the start of 2012. Summary of the speculative accounts in the Commitment of Traders report for the period 2 – 8 May: Most extreme positioning: Net short EURLargest change: Increase in […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has charted a key day reversal just ahead of the the 1.2624 January low. The rally has already met the 23.6% retracement at 1.2793, looking for this to extend to 1.2887 then 1.2963, there is scope for 1.3038 (61.8% retracement+ early February and early April lows ) but we would expect the market to […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.5818, after easing back from a late recovery to $1.5838. The corrective pullback continued into early Asia, the move down tracking EUR/USD moves, with rate touching a low at $1.5795 before recovering.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD could temporarily give back some recent losses… EUR/USD Correcting the stretch… EUR/GBP Contesting the 21day EMA… USD/CAD Near-term momentum loss… EUR/SEK Still looks like a bullish triangle… USD/SEK Taking care of the stretch… EUR/NOK Should contest 7.68 this week… NOK/SEK Checking support at 1.1930.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.2782, off late extended recovery highs of $1.2795. The corrective pullback continued into early Asia, the rate pressed to a session low of $1.2749 before meeting US name demand.
G8 delivers words (and not much else) but EUR remains resilient
The anticipation ahead of the weekend G8 meeting failed to morph into something considerable by the start of trading this week, yet the EUR seems surprisingly resilient in Asia. Markets were anticipating some urgency into this weekend’s G8 meeting but the final statement left many issues hanging.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.25 and Y100.39, Opened in Asia at Y79.35 and lifted to Y79.45 on demand from Japanese importers ahead of the Tokyo fix. Comments from FinMin Azumi that speculators overreacted yesterday and that the BOJ will closely monitor rates, supported markets.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2665, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2697, after recovering off session lows of $1.2688. Rate came under early sell pressure into Asia, French name hit a thin market that took rate to initial lows of $1.26661.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: A lost decade?
EUR USD (1.2680) The Greek electorate’s desire to remain in the eurozone is now being reflected in the latest polls of voting intention. Parties supporting the international bailout would be able to form a coalition government according to the latest survey, but the market did not see this as positive.
Technical Analysis
Not much is better than when we left desks Wednesday… Dollar strength remains on the fore, but now likely with EURUSD in a grind lower than in a freefall… EURGBP could even give back some more losses near-term…
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5797, off late session lows of $1.5785. Rate came under early downside pressure, led by the strong opening sales in EUR/USD, with rate pulled to an early low of $1.5754. Rate recovered to post a session high at $1.5792 into the Tokyo open before again turning lower with EUR/USD remaining the […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2697, after recovering off session lows of $1.2688. Rate came under early sell pressure by a major French bank, the weight of sales hitting a thin market that took rate to lows of $1.26661.