Forex Market
A firmer tone for the EUR (and risk) at the start of a new week
The EUR has started this week with a mild rush higher as weekend Greek opinion polls suggested that the pro-bailout New Democracy Party in Greece is making positive headway against Syriza and is now a few percentage points ahead.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook : Swiss intervention is a viscous circle
EUR USD (1.2525) A mid-session upward spike in the EUR/CHF rate yesterday brought traders quickly to the conclusion that the SNB was reasserting its determination to cap the strength of its domestic currency.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2530, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2532 following a recovery off late pullback lows of $1.25205. Rate had seen lows of $1.25153 earlier in the day, with a recovery seen to $1.26205. A US bank was an aggressive buyer in early Asia taking the rate to $1.2553.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5652, stg0.8005, GBP closed in NY at $1.5669 after recovering off a late pullback low of $1.5648. Rate tracked EUR/USD moves, pushing up to an early session high of $1.5674 before reversing to retest that NY low, while EUR/GBP was contained by stg0.80005-0.8011.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.71 and Y99.91 Opened in Asia around Y79.55 and headed higher on positive CPI data, Japanese importer and multiple-of-5 demand to Y79.72. The rate pared gains after the Tokyo fix, before running into strong support from corporates and attempting a recovery.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has charted a minor new low for the year, this has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and the market has not closed below the 1.2530 78.6% retracement of the move from 2010 to 2011, this suggests caution here.
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5669 after recovering off a late pullback low of $1.5648. Rate tracked EUR/USD moves, pushing up to an early session high of $1.5674 before reversing to retest that NY low, while EUR/GBP was contained by stg0.80005-0.8011.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2532 following a recovery off $1.25205. Rate had seen lows of $1.25153 earlier in the day, with a recovery seen to $1.26205. A US bank was an aggressive buyer in early Asian trade, taking the rate to a ‘dubious’ high of $1.2555 in its effort to trigger stops.
Technical Analysis
Continued $ demand, SEK sellers?… EUR/USD Low end of support cluster… GBP/USD Important supports coming up… EUR/SEK Strong support beneath… USD/SEK Bullish congestion… EUR/NOK Up from low end of the range.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD opened the Asian session around $0.9762, after picking up from lows of around $0.9717 amid another late move higher in the last hour on Wall Street. With the absence of any data, prices have been mainly influenced by Asian stock prices.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5682, stg0.8017, GBP closed in NY at $1.5690, after correcting off late lows of $1.5675 to $1.5710 as rate tracked EUR/USD moves. Trade through Asia saw rate consolidate Wednesday’s losses, trade restricted to a tight $1.5675/1.5700 range, before coming under fresh downside pressure into Europe as it extended lows to $1.5668.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Opinions on eurobonds need to be known
EUR USD (1.2575) The euro was roiled yesterday on unconfirmed reports that eurozone governments are preparing contingency plans for an exit of a country from the bloc. It would be puzzling if officials thought it necessary to make it explicit given the obvious risks.