Forex Market
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2348, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2365, after a dollar demand end month fixing had taken rate to extended lows of $1.2336. Rate came under pressure into early Asian dealing, the release of weaker than forecast China PMI data taking it to overnight lows of $1.2324.
Technical Analysis
Dollar & JPY in the driver’s seat, record low yield… EUR/USD Sellers taking a breather?… EUR/JPY Key support violated… EUR/SEK Still indecisive… USD/SEK Next target within reach… EUR/NOK Key day reversal!… NOK/SEK A 2nd leg lower…GBP/USD Extending the slump.
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY closed in NY at Y78.36, after touching an extended low of Y78.21. Rate quickly picked up a bid tone into Tokyo trade, the move up to Y78.65 aided by FinMin Azumi warnings of decisive action on yen as well as talk of M&A flows linked to Japanese Marubeni buying of US grains firm Gavilon, […]
AUD/USD Analysis
Release of weaker than forecast China PMI data (50.4 vs consensus 52.0 and Apr 53.8) provided the early impetus to take AUD/USD through Thursday’s local low of $0.9673, breaking under the late November low of $0.9664 before basing at $0.9648.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2365, after a dollar demand end month fixing had taken rate to extended lows of $1.2336. Rate came under pressure into early Asian dealing, the release of weaker than forecast China PMI data giving it the nudge to take it to overnight lows of $1.2324.
Asia today: Manufacturing PMIs echo weak sentiment elsewhere
Asian PMI data for May echoed the weakness seen elsewhere and led to another (brief) risk-off push during the Asian morning. China’s official manufacturing PMI data caught some by surprise (only because it was released 30 seconds early!) but the trend direction was no real surprise. Falling to 50.4 from 53.3, the drop was greater […]
FX Ringside
Norway: Surprisingly low FX purchases in June Today Norges Bank announced FX purchases for June. To our surprise the central bank chose to keep FX purchases flat at (selling) NOK 350m/day. Since the revised government budget was presented on May 10th the oil price has fallen some 5%.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Austerity still has precedence
EUR USD (1.2375) High Spanish borrowing costs, diving stock markets and concerns about the banking industry again saw investors buying safe-haven assets yesterday. Perhaps that’s why EC’s proposal of a joint bank deposit guarantee scheme, a eurozone wide financial supervision body, and a direct recapitalisation of the banks by the ESM, resonated in the markets.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5478, stg0.8002, GBP closed in NY at $1.5482 after rate was pressured to session lows of $1.5475. Rate tracked early downside pressure on EUR/USD, led by early AUD sales, which took rate to extended lows of $1.5463 before recovering.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2387, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.23668, after rate was pressed to lows of $1.2361. Rate came under renewed downside pressure in early trade, the posting an extended low of $1.2358 as it took an early lead from the sell off in AUD (Tr.Sec.Martin comment on the Australian deficit), but demand […]
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.76 and Y97.64, Opened in Asia around Y79.10 at the top of the range and headed lower on further deleveraging, a weak start to Asian equities added weight to Y78.90. USD pressed lower on FinMin Azumi comments warning that FX and stock markets moves did not reflect fundamentals, extending losses […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has now dropped right through the 1.2457 March 2009 low and is on is way to the 1.2329/06 support zone. This consists of the 2008 trough and the 2001-12 uptrend line. Medium term the 200 month moving average at 1.2066 and the psychological 1.2000 mark remain in sight.