Forex Market
Technical Analysis
Commodities falling sharply, OIL falling through its trapdoor (ending the week here and we will be looking for the mid 70’s). Accordingly commodity ccy’s should suffer so watch out for AUD selling (not to mention russian equities, that’s a head and shoulders top!).
EURJPY – today’s chart to watch
EURJPY tried to break higher yesterday on the back of the FOMC, but can it carry through or will it reverse back into the range and head back lower on ongoing EU uncertainty?
FX Trends daily (FOCUS : GBP/AUD)
GBP/AUD After declining on the last week, the GBP/AUD has bounced on a support at 1.5373 (50% retracement of February to May 2012 upward wave). Over the coming trading sessions, the cross should extend its recovery towards 1.5565, and possibly towards 1.5684 (23.6% and 38.2% retracements of May to June 2012 downward wave). Alternatively, breaking […]
GBP/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.5717 having seen a volatile FOMC reaction, with moves tracking EUR/USD reaction. Rate initially dropped down to retest the earlier post BOE Minutes lows at $1.5651 before bouncing sharply higher to $1.5755.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY at $1.2704 having experienced a volatile reaction to the FOMC extending Operation Twist into year end, initially dropping to session lows of $1.2638 before bouncing sharply back to highs of $1.2744 as details of the release were analysed.
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD opened in Asian Thursday around $1.0195 and has been observed in a range of $1.0150/$1.0205 so far. Price action was on the choppy side early on with the pair trading up to session highs of $1.0205 as the market digested the Fed’s decision to extend operation twist.
FOMC kneejerk reaction reverses course
The knee-jerk reaction to the Fed’s extension of Operation Twist to the end of 2012 quickly yielded back to the risk-on and a further sell-off in bonds, which could mean the most pressure will be on the JPY from here.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Reversal of transfers sought in the eurozone
EUR USD (1.2675) Reports suggesting that the Italian PM has floated the idea of using the EFSF to purchase the peripheral bonds were followed quickly by those suggesting Germany’s non-committal approach to the idea.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y78.87 and Y100.02, opened in Asia at Y79.00 and headed higher on reported hedge fund demand to Y79.12. USD was unable to maintain gains and slipped after the Tokyo fix to Y78.79, later nudging higher to Y78.85 as market players await the outcome of the Fed’s FOMC.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5725, stg0.8059, GBP closed in NY at $1.5726, after its late recovery extended to a high of $1.5757 ($1.5758 76.4% $1.5802-1.5615). Rate eased to $1.5718 ahead of the session close.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2673, EUR/USD closed in NY at $1.2685, off late rally highs of $1.2730 seen as market reacted to a press report suggesting that Germany had agreed to Eurozone bailout funds buying debt.
Technical Analysis
Mr. Riskoff stands in the wings – with QE hopes lingering… EUR/USD Bearish candle neutralized… AUD/USD Momentous correction… EUR/SEK Same old range… USD/SEK Was refused a lift… EUR/NOK Could possibly stretch for ~7.57… USD/NOK Still on top of support… USD/JPY 79.15 a must watch.