Forex Market
Optimists squeezed again ahead of EU summit
Today saw follow through on last Thursday’s meltdown in risk, this time with the JPY cutting a vicious swath across the major currencies. The tables have been turned in major JPY crosses.
PLN Analysis
It is quite interesting that after only 7 weeks after a rate hike of 25bp, a few Polish central bank members have started to talk about a rate cut. Chojna-Duch has mentioned such an option last week.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro is poised for further policy inertia
EUR USD (1.2540) A €130 billion growth pact, worth one per cent of eurozone GDP, was the highlight of the Rome summit. Germany and other creditor nations, however, continue to oppose sovereign bond buying by the pan-European rescue vehicles and German officials are even massaging downwards expectations for the end-of-the-month EU summit.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5587, stg0.8043, GBP closed Friday’s NY session at $1.5575, before getting pressed to early lows in Asia of $1.5551, as the cross spiked to stg0.8076 from its NY close of stg0.8060, before bouncing to $1.5595 then settling between $1.5575/90 through the balance of the session.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y80.17 and Y100.42, opened in Asia at Y80.48 and rallied in light trade as the euro found early support, but soon slipped from the Y80.62 highs seen around the Tokyo fix, weighed by Japanese exporter sales.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2537, EUR/USD closed in NY Friday at $1.2565 after pulling back from a session high of $1.2583, then recovered into the close from $1.2522.
CFTC: Dollar long cut by 44 percent; AUD back to neutral
Hedge funds and other money managers cut their net dollar long exposure through IMM currency futures by 44 percent following the Greek election and ahead of the US Federal Open market Committee meeting.
Technical Analysis
Dollar back in the driver’s seat. Commodity slump… EUR/USD Bear flag exit… AUD/USD More evidence of a peak… EUR/SEK Spiked below the Jan line… USD/SEK Returning bull… EUR/NOK So far responding to support… EUR/HUF Topside focus.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: Finds Support at 21-DMA. The euro sees a bear-cross in the daily stochastic study as the market slides to find support at the 21-day moving average of $1.2522, which meets a 50% retracement of the June rally at $1.2518.
FX Trends daily (FOCUS: CHF/JPY)
CHF/JPY After faltering to clear a major resistance at 84.55 (38.2% retracement of March to June 2012 downward wave and upper bound of a short-term bearish channel), the CHF/JPY has gone back to the decline and should test a support at 82.82 (short-term support trend line). Only a break below this level would signal an […]
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Friday at $1.2565 after pulling back from a session high of $1.2583 before recovering into the close from $1.2522. Rate came under pressure into Asian dealing, some linking this to the Troika delaying its visit to Athens, Greek PM Samaras not attending the EU Summit as well as an article in the […]
AUD/USD Analysis
AUD/USD opened in Asia Monday around $1.0050 and has been seen in a range of $1.0019/55 so far this morning, with the rate currently trading $1.0035 down 29 pips from Friday’s NY close.