Forex Market
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Focus remains on lower levels. With the AUD again rejected on a bounce, this time ahead of the spike low from June 20, initial focus remains on tests of the 21 day MA and then potentially the 2012 lows.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: EU summit may yet deliver a modest upside
EUR USD (1.2510) Market expectations for any policy solution from the latest EU summit are exceptionally low. The general impression seems to be that the meeting will deliver a roadmap to the roadmap.
JPY Analysis
Opened in early Europe at Y79.45 and Y99.38, JPY was mixed in Asia Thursday, trading higher against the USD but edging lower against the yen.
GBP Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.5595, stg0.8022, another quiet Asian session for cable, the rate closed Wednesday in NY at $1.5570, recovering from pullback lows of $1.5545 after the London fixings.
EUR Analysis
Opened early Europe at $1.2510, closed in NY Wednesday at $1.2470 and recovered from lows of $1.2445 after the London fixings. The EUR opened higher and lifted to $1.2480 in Asia, although volumes were very light, with many players on the sidelines ahead of the EU leaders summit starting later today.
EURUSD pivot shifts lower
The EURUSD complacency seems to be fading – and before the EU summit has even introduced its first headline risks. Today’s swift move has shifted the resistance level for EURUSD a few notches lower now.
FX Open
All eyes on the EU summit and thematically, nothing really has changed. More position squaring, however, price action has not been enough to alter underlying trends; we remain unchanged in our view to FX and peripheral bond markets.
Technical Analysis
Not much to report except our bullish NOK/SEK call been proven wrong with the 1.1715 break. Other than that corrections/congestions still ongoing but seen as being in the latter stages.
GBP/USD Analysis
Another quiet Asian session for cable, the rate closed Wednesday in NY at $1.5570, recovering from pullback lows of $1.5545 after the London fixings.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.2470, rate recovered from $1.2445 lows after the London fixings. The euro opened higher to $1.2480 in Asia, although volumes were very light, with many players on the sidelines ahead of the EU leaders summit starting later today.
AUD/USD Analysis
The AUD was higher against the dollar in Asia Thursday, sitting on the session highs into the European open. AUD/USD was higher from the getgo, helped by talk of options demand from $1.0085, helping push the pair through $1.0100, triigering small stops, although most stops triggered on a break abobe $1.0110.
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY Y79.46 (Y79.34=Y79.76), euro-yen Y99.46 (y99.16-Y99.47) The yen was mixed in Asia Thursday, trading higher against the USD but edging lower against the yen.