Forex Market
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD: The euro sees mixed daily studies with the stochastic recovering in neutral territory but 10-day momentum fading at the zero line.
FX G10 and EM Morning Trader Views
G10 EUR – So now the decks fully cleared – US holiday tomorrow so expect a holding pattern into the ECB on Thursday – 1.2550 held on the dip yest , 1.2610/15 was the pivot yesterday so expect some weak stops 1.2620/40 topside – ultimately 1.2550/1.2670 for now.
GBP/USD Analysis
Another quiet Asian session for cable, the rate closed Monday in NY at $1.5696 after profit take sales off $1.5720 highs. GBP has seen decent risk appetite to start the week and trades as a safe haven ahead of the expected increase in QE from the MPC on Thursday.
EUR/USD Analysis
Closed in NY Monday at $1.2585, rate recovered from lows of $1.2568 following weak ISM PMI data which signaled its first contraction since July 2009.
AUD/USD Analysis
The AUD is higher Tuesday, helped by stronger than expected domestic data, an unchanged policy decision from the RBA and a continuation of the global risk-on trade.
USD/JPY Analysis
EUR/JPY was last at Y100.45, having been lifted off early lows by Japanese trust bank and securities firm buying. Offers are seen at Y100.75 through to Y101.00.
Asia today: No change from RBA; statement neutral
The RBA kept rates unchanged at 3.5 percent Tuesday and the accompanying statement was as neutral as neutral could be. Policy is appropriate, no change in inflation outlook and consistent with target.
Asian Currencies Technicals
AUD/USD: Consolidates Fridays move higher. The AUD now sees initial support at yesterday’s low of $1.0212 but back below the 2nd layer of support at $1.0158 is needed to shift the immediate focus away from a continuation higher that sees the April monthly highs targeted.
EUR Analysis
Euro was defensive ahead of the US session with soft European PMI data adding weight, and the euro wasted little time in stretching to fresh lows for the session as bids ahead of $1.2600 were filled.
JPY Analysis
USD/JPY had recovered off the European low area as the dollar held a cautiously upbeat tone while EUR/JPY orbited Y100.50 area with little direction, and dollar highs were notched at Y79.83 around the ECB fixing before the pair stalled in front of offers above Y79.90.
Europhoria fades a bit as a new week dawns
Last week’s EU summit did offer surprises – but also poses questions. We’re also back to the grind of a fresh batch of ugly manufacturing data around the world, reminding us of the weak global growth predicament.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: This EU summit does not fit the mould
EUR USD (1.2625) After a weekend of reflection following the EU summit, it is being claimed by many prominent commentators that Germany’s Chancellor managed to keep the overall liabilities for her country unchanged.