Forex Forecast

USDJPY Marches Higher After opening with a heavy tone, markets recovered somewhat in Europe and the euro grinded back towards its opening level. A Strong ZEW print helped sentiment, while Spanish and Italian auctions were taken favourably by the market.

BoJ Eases, Moody’s Downgrades The BoJ unexpectedly followed in the Fed’s footsteps and effectively set an inflation target of +1% y/y. It also increased its target for asset purchases to help meet this new inflation objective.

BoJ Due We expect the BoJ to leave policy unchanged on Tuesday, although there has been some speculation that further easing measures will be announced. If any easing is announced, we expect it to have a marginally negative impact on JPY, past announcements have lead to a brief rally in USDJPY, which eventually fades after […]

Greek Progress Rewarded The dollar was soft overnight as investors rewarded the positive developments in Greece to move back into risk assets. Last night the Greek parliament voted in favour of a new package of austerity measures early on Monday morning, by 199 votes to 74.

Greek Austerity Approved The Greek parliament voted in favour of a new package of austerity measures early on Monday morning, by 199 votes to 74. There were 27 abstentions. The euro got a moderate boost once the count got underway, but we saw no follow through after the result was announced.

Risk Correction After negotiations between Greek and European officials broke down last night, risk appetite was significantly softer on Friday. The AUD took a knock overnight as the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy was interpreted as dovish, while Chinese loan data was poor.

Back To Drawing Board The Eurogroup was not impressed with the inter-party agreement from Athens and late after the Eurogroup meeting yesterday Greek PM Venizelos was sent back to Athens with demands for deeper cuts.

Draghi Grilled On Greece The latest deadline on Greece failed to bring any conclusions and negotiations continue. German finance minister Schaeuble announced that there will be no deal announced at the Thursday meeting, since the current deal does not fulfil conditions.

£50 bn QE from the BoE As expected, the Bank of England delivered an additional GBP50bn in the quantitative easing programme. In the statement, Governor King noted that there were some more positive signs and a gradual strengthening of output should be supported by a gentle recovery in household real incomes but issues in the […]

ECB, BoE, Eurogroup The Greek negotiations appear to be moving into the final stages as Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker announced that a press conference is scheduled for 18.00CET on Thursday, after the Eurogroup meets.

Another Greek Deadline The Greek negotiations appear to be moving into the final stages as Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker announced that a press conference is scheduled for 18.00CET on Thursday. While progress has clearly been made, negotiations remain tense and further complications to the deal have emerged.